“Predictability is making things, weirdly, slightly harder to predict.”https://53eig.ht/2ytOS6L
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Replying to @FiveThirtyEight
Oh my god, just say you don't know. It's fine.
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Replying to @Pinboard @FiveThirtyEight
What’s the issue with pointing out how uncertainty in the input variables (reliability of polling in local races along with idiosyncratic incertainty in turnout patterns) impacts the range of possible outcomes? Of course no one knows for sure...
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Replying to @mobiustrip46 @FiveThirtyEight
My argument is that we don't know *to an unusual extent* what will happen in two weeks, and that's not being well communicated here despite Nate's efforts. The wealth of detail suggests more knowledge, not less.
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I respectfully disagree; I thought this was a great piece, and I think that if recent history is any indication, people could really use this illustration of uncertainty. To me, the details only made the point more compelling.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
Respectfully disagree? On Twitter?? I don't know what to say to that
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