“Predictability is making things, weirdly, slightly harder to predict.”https://53eig.ht/2ytOS6L
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What’s the issue with pointing out how uncertainty in the input variables (reliability of polling in local races along with idiosyncratic incertainty in turnout patterns) impacts the range of possible outcomes? Of course no one knows for sure...
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My argument is that we don't know *to an unusual extent* what will happen in two weeks, and that's not being well communicated here despite Nate's efforts. The wealth of detail suggests more knowledge, not less.
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I read that post as saying they really don’t know. But their job is to quantify the impact of the uncertain inputs on the output of their models
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