A problem with political forecasts for the midterms is how much they rely on fundraising as one of the inputs. There is a wide gap right now between fundraising (which is off the charts for Democrats) and polling, which is not. The joys of curve fitting with 12 data points.
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You want to find the effect of x on y but g affects both. Find z that affects only y through x and measure that for an unbiased statietical model. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Instrumental_variables_estimation … The catch is you need to be clever with how the real world works to find a good z.
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Thank you for explaining that. I think the 'clever with how the real world works' part is the shoal many grand ships of political forecasting run aground on
End of conversation
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