A problem with political forecasts for the midterms is how much they rely on fundraising as one of the inputs. There is a wide gap right now between fundraising (which is off the charts for Democrats) and polling, which is not. The joys of curve fitting with 12 data points.
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If you truly want election predictions, look for a political forecaster whose salary is linked to how well their model performs on election day (and let me know if you find one)
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I mean you can squeeze a good model out of ommited variable bias -- you just need to think of an instrument variable.
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Say it in English, doc!
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