A problem with political forecasts for the midterms is how much they rely on fundraising as one of the inputs. There is a wide gap right now between fundraising (which is off the charts for Democrats) and polling, which is not. The joys of curve fitting with 12 data points.
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The upshot is, all the math in the world can't squeeze predictions out of this data, particularly when one of the indicators (fundraising) is now outside the realm of experience. No one knows what on earth is going to happen November 6
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If you truly want election predictions, look for a political forecaster whose salary is linked to how well their model performs on election day (and let me know if you find one)
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End of conversation
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Not me. Polls only=polls only.
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