Even forecasts that claim to be 'polls only' still have fundraising as an implicit input. There's a feedback loop between polling and fundraising that makes safe districts look safer, since opponents don't get adequate funding to run a real race.
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The upshot is, all the math in the world can't squeeze predictions out of this data, particularly when one of the indicators (fundraising) is now outside the realm of experience. No one knows what on earth is going to happen November 6
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If you truly want election predictions, look for a political forecaster whose salary is linked to how well their model performs on election day (and let me know if you find one)
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End of conversation
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