The third or fourth time a TV weatherman predicted tornadoes and hail before a sunny day at the beach, they would be fired. In political journalism, they would get their own show.
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Replying to @Pinboard
In this instance aren't you demanding they be fired for missing a forecast the *first* time?
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Replying to @B_Nied
I'm not demanding that anyone be fired! I do find it funny that he blocked me for pointing out his record.
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Replying to @Pinboard
You keep talking about "0 repercussions" and how no one should trust these guys. To extend your metaphor it'd be like going on months of threaded rants about how meteorology is bunk because it rained once when there was only supposed to be a 20% chance of rain.
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Replying to @B_Nied
If these folks had a huge portfolio of correct predictions, you are right that it would be unfair to single out missed ones. But this is more like a situation where there's only a potential rain event every two years. And there are additional ways political forecasting is harmful
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Replying to @Pinboard
Except they do have portfolios. Cook Political Report (Wasserman's current outfit) has been at it since '84, Wang since '06 and Silver since '08. You've zeroed in on '16 and are ignoring the rest.
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Replying to @B_Nied
Wang was so wrong he had to eat a bug! By his own criteria!
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Replying to @Pinboard
Really? I don't think you've mentioned that before. The fact remains he's got a track record (they all do) and you've decided one miss invalidates that.
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Replying to @B_Nied
That's not really accurate to say. I was pointing out his miss two years ago in the context of exhorting people to not be complacent this year, not as an attempt to discredit his ability. I clearly think his analysis has value, since I followed him until he blocked me
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Replying to @Pinboard
That may be your intent, but I can say as someone who follows you that your threads on this subject tend to be long on "these people were wrong once!" and very short on "so don't get complacent".
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They were wrong the only time it mattered.
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Replying to @Pinboard
If you think things didn't matter in 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, or 2014 then weren't really paying attention.
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