If political or economic forecasting is your job, and you get a forecast badly wrong, you should face professional consequences. If that approach turns out to be unworkable because no one can make reliably correct forecasts, then such forecasting should not be a job people do.
That's not really accurate to say. I was pointing out his miss two years ago in the context of exhorting people to not be complacent this year, not as an attempt to discredit his ability. I clearly think his analysis has value, since I followed him until he blocked me
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That may be your intent, but I can say as someone who follows you that your threads on this subject tend to be long on "these people were wrong once!" and very short on "so don't get complacent".
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They were wrong the only time it mattered.
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