If political or economic forecasting is your job, and you get a forecast badly wrong, you should face professional consequences. If that approach turns out to be unworkable because no one can make reliably correct forecasts, then such forecasting should not be a job people do.
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The third or fourth time a TV weatherman predicted tornadoes and hail before a sunny day at the beach, they would be fired. In political journalism, they would get their own show.
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Replying to @Pinboard
In this instance aren't you demanding they be fired for missing a forecast the *first* time?
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Replying to @B_Nied
I'm not demanding that anyone be fired! I do find it funny that he blocked me for pointing out his record.
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Replying to @Pinboard
You keep talking about "0 repercussions" and how no one should trust these guys. To extend your metaphor it'd be like going on months of threaded rants about how meteorology is bunk because it rained once when there was only supposed to be a 20% chance of rain.
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Replying to @B_Nied
If these folks had a huge portfolio of correct predictions, you are right that it would be unfair to single out missed ones. But this is more like a situation where there's only a potential rain event every two years. And there are additional ways political forecasting is harmful
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Replying to @Pinboard
Except they do have portfolios. Cook Political Report (Wasserman's current outfit) has been at it since '84, Wang since '06 and Silver since '08. You've zeroed in on '16 and are ignoring the rest.
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Wang was so wrong he had to eat a bug! By his own criteria!
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