On this date in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 87% chance of winning the election. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1050428737920094208 …
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Replying to @Pinboard
Well, their overall prediction was pretty spot on, though. Ultimately it was ~3/4 Clinton and 1/4 Trump -- and yes, in 1 out of 4 cases, that meant Trump would win, which he did. Polling has its fair share of issues and the Trump election and Brexit surfaced a couple of them, but
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Replying to @jwiechers @Pinboard
they also took a lot of flak from people who just can't deal with the fact that 1 in 4 (or even 1 in 10) events happen an awful lot.
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Replying to @jwiechers
I am not faulting their overall prediction! I am faulting the climate of certainty and hot takes around it.
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Replying to @Pinboard
Ah. Fair. Yes, I agree that this was what did most of the damage and that it fed off of this overconfidence/high likelihood bias around the predictions.
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Replying to @jwiechers
I'm fine with polling and prediction with appropriate error bars, but the way human nature and especially economic incentives in journalism work is that these get turned into narrative and stories. We suck at communicating uncertainty and error
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Replying to @Pinboard
Yep, it's a fight I've been fighting for more than a decade (And I recently faulted Nate/538 for also reporting on a difference below margin of error as if it meant anything and regularly get headaches at evening news coverage calling +/-1% changes "mood shift" when error is
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Replying to @jwiechers @Pinboard
usually 2.5-4% +/- on both German and US polls
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Replying to @jwiechers @Pinboard
BTW, just want to say, as an outside observer: impressive work you've been doing and I hope it pays off in November for all our sakes.
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Replying to @Pinboard
Wish I could do more, but that would be foreign interference. :D :/pic.twitter.com/rVL6gELNqc
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