If political or economic forecasting is your job, and you get a forecast badly wrong, you should face professional consequences. If that approach turns out to be unworkable because no one can make reliably correct forecasts, then such forecasting should not be a job people do.
If these folks had a huge portfolio of correct predictions, you are right that it would be unfair to single out missed ones. But this is more like a situation where there's only a potential rain event every two years. And there are additional ways political forecasting is harmful
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Except they do have portfolios. Cook Political Report (Wasserman's current outfit) has been at it since '84, Wang since '06 and Silver since '08. You've zeroed in on '16 and are ignoring the rest.
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Wang was so wrong he had to eat a bug! By his own criteria!
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