If political or economic forecasting is your job, and you get a forecast badly wrong, you should face professional consequences. If that approach turns out to be unworkable because no one can make reliably correct forecasts, then such forecasting should not be a job people do.
-
-
In this instance aren't you demanding they be fired for missing a forecast the *first* time?
-
I'm not demanding that anyone be fired! I do find it funny that he blocked me for pointing out his record.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
This Tweet is unavailable.
-
Yes, that's true. We need to figure out how to communicate uncertainty better, and tell stories around polling that aren't dishonest or self-fulfilling because they discourage people
End of conversation
-
-
-
it's because political forecasters aren't forecasting in the traditional sense: they're here to interpret the prevailing conventional wisdom of the political class in the polling numbers and other signals.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Have you read
@PTetlock's books?Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.