The third or fourth time a TV weatherman predicted tornadoes and hail before a sunny day at the beach, they would be fired. In political journalism, they would get their own show.
-
-
Show this threadThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
This is America in 2018. Accountability is dead. You can start a war under a false pretense and you're still a respectable person who wins awards.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Except when that same forecast is used to make decisions causing the forecast to be incorrect.
-
It can also go the other way, where the forecast is self-confirming.
End of conversation
New conversation -
-
-
How do you determine "badly wrong". If I give 2% likelihood and you give 30% and the event happens (or not), we still don't know if my forecast was a priori incorrect. We can't do multiple rollouts of history.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.