On this date in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 87% chance of winning the election. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1050428737920094208 …
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Ah. Fair. Yes, I agree that this was what did most of the damage and that it fed off of this overconfidence/high likelihood bias around the predictions.
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I'm fine with polling and prediction with appropriate error bars, but the way human nature and especially economic incentives in journalism work is that these get turned into narrative and stories. We suck at communicating uncertainty and error
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