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Pinboard

@Pinboard

The light inside is broken, but I still work. The Cadillac of online bookmarking sites. Alleged nocoiner. http://pinboard.in  maciej@ceglowski.com +1 415 610 0231

Lonely street of broken dreams
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    1. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 11 Oct 2018

      Pinboard Retweeted

      On this date in 2016, FiveThirtyEight gave Hillary Clinton a 87% chance of winning the election. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1050428737920094208 …

      Pinboard added,

      This Tweet is unavailable.
      4 replies 17 retweets 54 likes
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    2. ⬢ Jens Wiechers ⬡ (he/him; prefers they/them)‏ @jwiechers 11 Oct 2018
      Replying to @Pinboard

      Well, their overall prediction was pretty spot on, though. Ultimately it was ~3/4 Clinton and 1/4 Trump -- and yes, in 1 out of 4 cases, that meant Trump would win, which he did. Polling has its fair share of issues and the Trump election and Brexit surfaced a couple of them, but

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. ⬢ Jens Wiechers ⬡ (he/him; prefers they/them)‏ @jwiechers 11 Oct 2018
      Replying to @jwiechers @Pinboard

      they also took a lot of flak from people who just can't deal with the fact that 1 in 4 (or even 1 in 10) events happen an awful lot.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 11 Oct 2018
      Replying to @jwiechers

      I am not faulting their overall prediction! I am faulting the climate of certainty and hot takes around it.

      10:42 AM - 11 Oct 2018
      • 6 Likes
      • ericbalasbas Sarah T., disagreeable leftist stranger Corn Woman 🌽 Per Øyvind Øygard ⬢ Jens Wiechers ⬡ (he/him; prefers they/them) Adam
      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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        2. ⬢ Jens Wiechers ⬡ (he/him; prefers they/them)‏ @jwiechers 11 Oct 2018
          Replying to @Pinboard

          Ah. Fair. Yes, I agree that this was what did most of the damage and that it fed off of this overconfidence/high likelihood bias around the predictions.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Pinboard‏ @Pinboard 11 Oct 2018
          Replying to @jwiechers

          I'm fine with polling and prediction with appropriate error bars, but the way human nature and especially economic incentives in journalism work is that these get turned into narrative and stories. We suck at communicating uncertainty and error

          1 reply 1 retweet 3 likes
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