This is taken from the Washington Post, https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-of-battleground-house-districts-shows-democrats-with-narrow-edge/2018/10/07/f45e13f2-c812-11e8-b1ed-1d2d65b86d0c_story.html …. When I say the above are close races, I'm not expressing wishful thinking, but actual published polling that the Washington Post has also seen, but ignores because it contradicts "the model"
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The correct thing to say is "2018 is a chaotic political environment and we know very little about which races will be salient." As a CA-12 voter, I don't think the notion of a 'safe seat' is bogus, but the lack of epistemic humility among pundits and forecasters vexes me
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(As a CA-12 voter, I also plan to vote against Pelosi and hope you'll join me! San Francisco needs a congressional representative who sometimes thinks about San Francisco)
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