On this closing day of the last FEC filing period before the election, let me make my closing argument for funding lesser-known House races as the most effective use of people's political money right now.
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I've heard from some donors that they'd rather concentrate on the Senate, since the House seems 'safe' right now.
@FiveThirtyEight has the odds of a Democratic victory at 80% today. I remind those people that the same site had Clinton at 87% three weeks before the 2016 election.1 reply 5 retweets 17 likesShow this thread -
We also can't assume that we know what 'the deciding districts are in a chaotic political environment.
@FiveThirtyEight in 2016 had a nicely arranged 'snake' view of states ranked by likelihood they'd vote Democratic. But Clinton lost Michigan and Wisconsin while keeping Coloradopic.twitter.com/hA53f4eDb1
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Even if you are confident in a Democratic victory, it is far better to have a landslide where the party gains 60 seats than it is to have a razor-thin margin in the House. The more we can win by in the House, the more pressure there will be on vulnerable Republicans in the Senate
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Finally, every red-leaning district is a political laboratory for tactics that defeat white ethnic nationalism. If we can overperform in tough races, that's a valuable political lesson learned. If we underperform for lack of money, all we learn is that we didn't have enough money
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Dollars go *really far* in the kinds of districts we're fundraising for. In many of those districts, we have polling in hand showing that the candidate can win independent votes if those voters hear a short description of their position. It's a race to reach those voters in time
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To put it in concrete terms, we know that an additional $100-$200K in October raised for those campaigns, enough to buy some TV ad time, could make the difference and score an upset victory. We should be pushing for victories wherever we can get them, even if it's at steep odds
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Finally, none of the candidates should be fundraising in October. Every hour they spend on the phones or at fundraisers is one less hour they have to reach voters. The Great Slate is not an effort to buy elections—it's an effort to buy candidates time.https://secure.actblue.com/donate/great_slate …
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