The FiveThirtyEight model now has Beto O'Rourke possibly winning in Texas, the strongest piece of evidence to date that Beto will lose :-( https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-why-our-model-thinks-beto-orourke-really-has-a-chance-in-texas/?ex_cid=story-twitter …
They don't! How do you falsify "there is a 73.9328% chance that Democrats will take the House"?
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If the model makes lots of individual predictions at some specified level of confidence, can't you use the election results to verify that the confidence levels are calibrated correctly?
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