I have some things to say about the poll the Jess King campaign just released. The upshot is that incumbent Lloyd Smucker leads 44-35, and his margin shrinks to a single point (!!) if respondents hear a short description of each candidate. https://jesskingforcongress.com/ppp-poll-jess-king-makes-pa-11-single-digit-race/ …
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Pretty much everyone bailed on Jess at that point, first among them the DCCC-backed generic Democrat who had lost in the last election, and had no desire to try again in the much harder environment of the new PA-11. Jess won the nomination by default.
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It's hard to overstate the amount of organizing and effort that the campaign as well as local organizations like Lancaster Stands Up have poured into PA-11. The experiment they are performing there is remarkable, and
@ryangrim has written about it well. https://jesskingforcongress.com/ppp-poll-jess-king-makes-pa-11-single-digit-race/ …Show this thread -
It's easy to tell yourself stories when you love a candidate. The evidence we have today is that Jess can ERASE a 26 point deficit in a very white, very Trump district, running on a message of uncompromising social justice, and win—if voters hear her message.
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Like in other Great Slate districts where there is direct evidence that the candidate will win if they reach undecided voters, it becomes a race to reach as many of those voters as possible. We have to get Jess on TV, keep her on her punishing tour schedule, and not let up
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The one thing she shouldn't spend a second on is fundraising. There's simply no time. So I ask you to imagine what it will feel like to win a district Trump carried by 26 points, what that win will mean to the country, and give to Jess's effort right now.https://secure.actblue.com/donate/great_slate …
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This campaign has been full of true believers from the start. I was a true believer and every visit to Lancaster and York county has reinforced that faith. But now we have the numbers. This is, in defiance of conventional wisdom, a won race if we can find the money.
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More details in Jess's campaign email: the race is 41%-40% (with 19% undecided) after voters hear that Smucker doesn't hold town halls and takes corporate PAC money. The fact that he remains below 50% in all cases is very significant, as is the high undecided rate. MoE is ~5%
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End of conversation
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