With the voting seven weeks away, and the big FEC reporting deadline 14 days out, let me take a minute to make you really pessimistic about the midterm elections. Source: have been traveling for a year across more lean-R/likely-R districts than the average bookmark magnate.
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Remember two years ago, when Trump was reeling from one crushing blow after another, and it seemed like a matter of days before he would topple? We were highly confident in a Democratic victory not just because of politics, but because of math! The models all converged.pic.twitter.com/mSGlrQPMwp
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After the fact, it turned out that maybe we didn't understand the political moment like we thought we did. But none of the prognosticators lost their jobs, or even lost confidence in their ability to predict American politics. And the forecasts look great once again! Blue wave!pic.twitter.com/swJfd6sPW0
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Replying to @Pinboard
The difference is that the primary results did not back the "Trump/GOP will lose by a large margin" interpretation of events at all. 2017-18 election results DO back the "GOP will lose by a large margin" interpretation.
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There's no meaningful link I know of between the primary results and the general election.
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