With the voting seven weeks away, and the big FEC reporting deadline 14 days out, let me take a minute to make you really pessimistic about the midterm elections. Source: have been traveling for a year across more lean-R/likely-R districts than the average bookmark magnate.
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There is in general. It's tougher for presidential races, though. New Hampshire is probably the best state for presidential races; look at the general patterns for 2008, 2016, 2000.
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For example; GOP got more primary votes than Democrats in Michigan in 2010 gov (bigly), 2014 gov (smaller margin), and 2016 prez (even smaller margin). The prez and gov results in the general align with that quite well. Dems got more primary votes than GOP in gov primary 2018.
End of conversation
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