With the voting seven weeks away, and the big FEC reporting deadline 14 days out, let me take a minute to make you really pessimistic about the midterm elections. Source: have been traveling for a year across more lean-R/likely-R districts than the average bookmark magnate.
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Remember two years ago, when Trump was reeling from one crushing blow after another, and it seemed like a matter of days before he would topple? We were highly confident in a Democratic victory not just because of politics, but because of math! The models all converged.pic.twitter.com/mSGlrQPMwp
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After the fact, it turned out that maybe we didn't understand the political moment like we thought we did. But none of the prognosticators lost their jobs, or even lost confidence in their ability to predict American politics. And the forecasts look great once again! Blue wave!pic.twitter.com/swJfd6sPW0
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But the fact is, none of the underlying facts that got Trump elected have changed. People remain horribly disaffected by national government and see it as run by a cynical bunch in the hands of corporate money. Wages are stagnant like before. Infrastructure sucks like before.
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Fox News persuades millions of people to live inside its alternate reality, like before. Racism and xenophobia is rampant, like before, and those attitudes are skillfully manipulated, like before. The one thing that has changed is steady economic growth, just like Trump promised
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The drop in unemployment is something people do feel. But the most effective pitch the Republicans are making is a negative one—"Democrats want to gut medicare and social security to pay for socialism. Trump is bringing back American jobs, don't let Nancy Pelosi stop him."
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