The NYT live House polls are useful in showing how small a cornerstone of fact holds up the inverted pyramid of speculation. Note especially how big the error bars are, and how few people pick up a ringing phone these days.
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"Give me a spreadsheet, a phone and a Gaussian and I can move the earth" is the motto of too many people in politics who should know better.
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Replying to @Pinboard
I feel like that could be a potshot at me. FWIW, I do allow for wide tails. We've even talked about kurtosis!
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Replying to @askaphysicist
If the shoe fits with an r^2 value > 0.8....
8:15 AM - 10 Sep 2018
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