O’Connor is losing Licking county by eight points with 14% reporting. Things can change, but the benchmark here is for him too lose by eightTEEN here and win districtwide.
-
Show this thread
-
With 40% of Franklin County reporting, O’Connor (D) is up 70 to 28. E day vote slowly taking its toll. This is gonna be close (we’ve known that)
3 replies 16 retweets 64 likesShow this thread -
G. Elliott Morris Retweeted G. Elliott Morris
Of course, right when I tweet we get a big dump of precincts… still nothing new from Delaware (thread broke, so tying these two tweets in here)https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1026997400349679616 …
G. Elliott Morris added,
G. Elliott MorrisVerified account @gelliottmorrisWith 32% reporting in#OH12, Danny O’Connor (D) is losing election day voters by 8%. It looks like early voting is going to end up being about 20% of overall votes. As I said early, Balderson needs to win a 20/80 EV/ED split by 8 points to win. So… too close to call. pic.twitter.com/qSsUVfcrVZShow this thread2 replies 6 retweets 19 likesShow this thread -
I’m gonna go ahead and say that O’Connor has the lead heading into the second half of reporting precincts, and will continue to do so if BOTH of these conditions are met: (1) Franklin county keeps up w/ high turnout (2) Delaware election day vote is not worse for Ds than R+10
4 replies 19 retweets 72 likesShow this thread -
I will say this again for posterity’s sake: If O’Connor wins, it’s going to be because Franklin County elected him
6 replies 15 retweets 77 likesShow this thread -
I’d reckon that the parts of Delaware County that are FINALLY reporting are the more rural ones, but impossible to know (nobody is providing precinct-level data). If true, O’Connor can win. If not, He is toast. Balderson takes first lead of the night.
13 replies 36 retweets 63 likesShow this thread -
All of these things are true: - Balderson could win by running up score in rural Delaware county - O’Connor has a lot of really good precincts left in both Delaware and Franklin counties (where he’s winning by 30 points right now) - We might not know until after midnight!
12 replies 37 retweets 117 likesShow this thread -
#OH12 is going to be a slim win for either O’Connor (D) or Balderson (R). What I can say for sure: a 10 pt swing or a 15 pt swing toward Democrats, the midterm wave is already pretty much set in stone. Any one district doesn’t matter much in the models. (I’ve said this before.)8 replies 128 retweets 402 likesShow this thread -
O’Connor (D) margin vs benchmarks in
#OH12 counties that are currently 100% reporting: Licking: R+23 (Benchmark R+11) Richland: R+20 (R+10) Muskingum: R+34 (R+4) Morrow: R+40 (R+26) Marion: R+38 (R+26) Outstanding: Franklin: D+30 (D+22) Delaware: R+4 (R+9)5 replies 11 retweets 32 likesShow this thread -
You can put
#OH12 in the pile of evidence for urban areas moving left and rural areas moving right, even as the country as a whole moves left relative to 2016. We are a country deeply divided between cities, suburbia, and middle America.12 replies 68 retweets 225 likesShow this thread
"Middle America" is a REALLY charged term for what I believe you're trying to describe. Reconsider.
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.