Something I think a lot about is what is a reliable signal for gauging someone’s expertise in a field you are not familiar with. I’ve provisionally distilled it down to Unanticipatable Edge Complexity. They are able to drill down without hesitation into imperfections in models.
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A simplistic understanding of expertise is based on a surface idea of sounding smart. The ability to rattle off fancy composite phrases and facts. Real expertise is focused much less on staging the appearance of perfection in understanding, than knowing where they are imperfect.
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When I listen to true experts, I am always astounded on how complex their knowledge paths stray during free-roaming explanation, and how consistently they insist on hedging against simplicity. People who rehearse nonsense cannot reproduce this, or are phenomenal at tricking me.
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This is not to sanction the also-easy approach of saying everything is broken and horrible, in order to lift yourself and your solutions up. Understanding of extant systems means you know how they came to be accepted and implemented. You cannot replace what you don’t understand.
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For example, I consider myself somewhat familiar with the high-level problems of network security, and I had several easy ideas on improving manufacturing network security. An expert was able to systematically explain why none of my ideas were that easy to perform in actuality.
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In another case, speaking with scientists and professors at the bleeding-edge of fields. They routinely insist on saying what nobody even knows yet. See the conversations I highlighted with people that admit we do not fully understand glass. Yes, the stuff we make windows out of.
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A bullshitter would say of course we understand how glass works! It doesn’t even move! Easy pancakes. Ah, but in the real world you can keep diving forever until you reach the edge of textbook physics, the end of clean models, and the limits of human ability to ascertain reality
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Replying to @Pinboard @SwiftOnSecurity
Alas, poor Yorick! I knew him, Horatio, a fellow of infinite jest..
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