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Piers Harding-Rolls
@PiersHR
Games industry analyst. Games research Find me on Mastodon @piershr@home.social Threads .hr After comments? DMs open
London & Cambridge, UKampereanalysis.comJoined August 2009

Piers Harding-Rolls’s Tweets

Looking at the competitive positioning of Microsoft in terms of using cloud gaming tech to expand its audience it has strengths in the most important areas of the solution chain: >Cloud >Service delivery >Games content >Gaming brand & community
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To clarify: #FinalFantasyXVI is a full exclusive for 6 months (after which it can come to non-console platforms) & a console exclusive for 12 months (after which it can also come to other consoles) Timing and platform support is totally down to SE’s dev efforts /1
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Final Fantasy XVI is a full exclusive for 6 months and a console exclusive for 12 months (it is coming to PC as well) twitter.com/PlayStation/st…
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Games-related regulation activity heating up Generally it's been a slow process of evidence building and likely disrupted by the pandemic, but now more countries are actively examining the overlap of loot boxes and gambling
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Brazil launches inquiry to ban loot boxes gamesindustry.biz/articles/2021-
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Microsoft has said it will appeal the CMA decision The Competition Appeal Tribunal site says straightforward cases are aimed to be dealt with within 9 months - if MS wins it gets returned to the CMA Chances of this closing this year are now slim. That means we get the FTC case
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Sony referred to a next generation of PlayStation console in its CMA response, with the suggested year of release being redacted This was in a passage where it was referring to losing access to CoD after 2027, with higher potential for platform switching PlayStation 6 in 2028?
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Project xCloud’s public beta has been live to thousands of users in the US, UK and South Korea over the past four weeks. This is now being expanded to additional territories in early 2020 – Canada, Japan, Western Europe, and perhaps most interestingly, India. #X019
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Sony is increasing the price of the PS5, effective immediately 'due to global economic environment, including high inflation rates' No change in US pricing but others are as follows across both models: Europe +€50 UK +£30 Japan +5000 yen Australia + AUD$50 China + 400RMB
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Installed base of 3 console families at end of 2022: PS5 - 30m Xbox Series - 18.5m Switch - 119.5m (surpasses PS4) MS slightly increased volume share vs Sony, but I expect gap to widen in 1H ‘23 until Series X availability improves
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Live service titles in Xbox Game Pass approach 10% of catalogue - In Sept 2020 total number of titles in Game Pass Ultimate stood at 294 (in the US) - in Aug 2022 this had reached 550 (+87%) - In this time, live service games have grown from 17 (6% of catalogue) to 46 (9%)
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Only Tencent really has a comparable capability across all these areas. That's why MS is considered tier 1 when looking at the different players in the cloud gaming space. And why it is well positioned to expand its audience IF the 'underserved' AAA gamer exists in large numbers
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Few points: Judging by Lorne's comments without the PS Plus money the game may not have been finished The game was delayed which altered the addressable audience, changing the commercial dynamics 4m downloads equates to a much smaller premium sales 'missed' opportunity
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PlayStation Plus was ‘devastating’ for Oddworld: Soulstorm sales, its director has claimed. vgc.news/news/playstati
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3 million PUBG sales on Xbox One in 3 weeks. Very positive start and the way MS is approaching building the community bodes well for continued momentum. Amazing this turned from early access PC hit to arguably MS’ most important Xbox exclusive in ~6 months
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Excited to share that we ended December with over 3 million @PUBATTLEGROUNDS players on Xbox One. Big thanks to everyone who is helping us and our partners at PUBG Corp continue to make this new Game Preview title better and better! news.xbox.com/en-us/2018/01/
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There is no official confirmation of FF XVI coming to PC, however the structure of the deal and the mention in the Sony PS5 showcase does suggest this is the case. When this arrives after the 6 months contractual period is up is obviously down to SE. /2
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Microsoft has a big PC Game Pass push on at the moment >Southeast Asia rollout >attractive terms to pull in content >promotions for extended trials PC Game Pass is a useful tier of the service in markets where there is no streaming offer and console penetration is low
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Microsoft is giving free PC Game Pass memberships to non-members who played Halo Infinite (including F2P multiplayer), Forza Horizon 5 or Age of Empires 4. vgc.news/news/microsoft
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Sony confirmed to me it is 6 months full exclusive and 12 months console exclusive. I therefore assume (coupled with the caption in the presentation) that it is coming to PC.
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Sony leads the market with 45% share of consumer spending across hardware, games and services via/on PlayStation consoles This was a 1.3% drop versus 2021, which was picked up by Microsoft MS & Nintendo now have same share: due to Switch decline and strength of Game Pass
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Across the top 200 games on PS and Xbox consoles by MAU in Feb '23, FIFA 23 was the most engaging title, with users playing the title on average across ~10 days out of the month FIFA 23 beat titles such as Final Fantasy XIV and Genshin Impact on this engagement measure
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The auto-renewal policies on console have always felt off from the consumer perspective - Microsoft changes will help redress the balance The pro-rata refund should be standard practise, and I like the idea of ‘dormant’ paying subs eventually having payments turned off
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Netflix has 55 games in development with 35 currently on the service (has 2.5 months to add 15 games to hit its 50 target by end on year) ‘We’re seeing encouraging signs of gameplay leading to higher retention’ Excited about the cross-sector franchise building opportunity
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Some observations about the MS GeForce Now deal - in line with MS strategy to bring its store to all platforms - Nvidia takes no cut from 3rd party storefronts - bring your own game format not competitive with Game Pass - makes MS more competitive in the PC gaming space 1/3
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To sell through 10m PS5s faster than any other PS against the backdrop of the pandemic & its implications is a great achievement Pre-pandemic, a strong launch was expected considering the sales success of the PS4 and simultaneous global launch; COVID-19 called it into question
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On the earnings call Sony actually announced an increase to its PS5 FY shipment forecast to 19m (+1m) meaning a target of 6.2m for the Jan-March ‘23 quarter, double the highest PS4 record Supply is full and Sony must be experiencing continued pent up demand; let’s wait and see!
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Sony earnings: End of Dec ‘22 PS5 sell-through 30m, shipments 32.1m leaving 2.1m in transit/channel Supply looking normalised No change to FY forecast of 18m shipments, but looks very unlikely that it will reach necessary 5.2m in Jan-March ‘23 (PS4 peak was 3.1m)
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DLSS has a new ultra-performance mode that runs up to 8K. Nvidia just showed Control running at ~60 FPS and Wolfenstein at ~75FPS in 8K. DLSS 8K renders at 1440p and upscales to 8K. The games were running at 8K resolution, high settings on a #RTX3090
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New research: Global console market fell 7.8% in 2022 (-2.1% in constant currency) to $56.2bn (from $60.9bn) - market hampered by console availability, delays to major games - other factors incl. the post-pandemic reset & macroeconomic conditions Market still +18% vs 2019 🧵
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Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard is inching closer to completion The combined company will challenge EA as the biggest publisher across PlayStation and Xbox based on active users
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Interesting data from our latest UK consumer research PS5 owners are more likely to treat it as their primary console compared to all other consoles (71% of owners) 48% of Xbox Series X owners said they use their console the most Will be interesting how this changes over 2023
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MS' statement that it will not agree to a structural remedy for the ABK acquisition means that the CMA will have to climb down from its 'provisional' findings position and accept a behavioural remedy alone to agree to the deal
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What audience is Microsoft tapping into if it acquires Discord & what are the implications? A thread The biggest segment of users within US Discord users at 38% are what we at Ampere identify as ‘Insatiable Gamers’ – gamers that play on multiple platforms and consume a lot
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It’s an interesting dynamic; on the face of it, these are the two biggest players in cloud gaming market and should be classed as competitors, but this deal is mutually beneficial and underlines that streaming is a distribution strategy, not a business model 3/3
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FIFA 23 has been huge for EA - biggest launch in franchise history - surpassed FIFA 22 lifetime sales within 6 months - Jan-March ‘23 net bookings were up 31% year-over-year Ampere data shows ~18m played FIFA 23 across PlayStation and Xbox in March ‘23
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Xbox Game Pass Ultimate and PS Now users in the US are using a mix of distribution to consume their content: 40% of XGPU users only download games, 8% only stream 27% of PS Now users only download, 12% only stream The rest mix it up Note: this is 13-64yr old internet users
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NetEase has posted a strong response to Blizzard China's comments around its last minute attempts to negotiate an extension to the existing deal Says Blizzard is looking for a 3 year deal with a new partner English version attached via Google Translate (pls take into account)
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Latest PlayStation business strategy slides offer some interesting stats on the state of its business. A few observations by me 🧵 - compared to the PS4 generation, monetisation is up 15% but full game spend is down 21% over the same timeframe. Hence focus on live service games
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The new PS Plus: Sony simplifies and broadens its games content subscription offer Sony is re-configuring its two console-focused games subscription services into a single product with multiple tiers. PS Now will shed its name and be rolled into PS Plus 1/7
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Embracer Group aggressively pursuing a cross-media IP & production capability Acquiring Dark Horse Media which includes 300 IPs, comic, film & TV production The convergence of entertainment IP in the games, video, anime, comic space will grow in 2022
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New research: EA takes console active user share lead into 2023 Data pulled from the Ampere Games - Analytics platform shows EA's combined total of MAUs on PlayStation and Xbox consoles across its portfolio of games is higher than its competitors A 🧵with further insight...
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Subscription services were the only area of growth in 2022 - up 5.6% (10.9% cc) to $7.8bn - subscription volume was actually down, but higher ARPU from new sub tiers resulted in more spending
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Sony says almost 30% of current PS5 users never used a PS4 Our consumer research shows that PS5 owners are more likely to be single console owners versus the competition Considering product availability since launch and where we are in the lifecycle 30% appears quite high
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Bloomberg says no new Nintendo hardware in the current fiscal year (up until end of March '24) Switch was released March 2017 We currently have a next-gen console coming at the end of 2024 in our forecasts
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Netherlands & Belgium clampdown on loot boxes in games has seen multiple games remove them in these markets. EA already stopped paid for FUT player packs in Belgium Not ideal for EA. I estimate the FIFA game franchise is a $2bn annual business, a majority coming from FUT sales
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BREAKING: The Netherlands Gaming Authority has imposed a penalty on Electronic Arts $EA for the inclusion of "addicting gaming elements" in their #FIFA games. For every week without removal of said elements, EA gets a €500k penalty, with a max penalty of €5 million! #FIFA21 twitter.com/NOS/status/132…
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Yes, I know the normal cadence of console releases. The way it is phrased suggests after 2027, that’s why I mentioned 2028 Just a thought: perhaps the slow start to this gen means a longer lifecycle this time around
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Take-Two has acquired mobile multi-game subscription service GameClub GameClub is a small independent player offering its service across iOS and Android, competing with Apple Arcade and Google Play Pass Some obvious synergies with other mobile acquisitions including Zynga
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Netflix and Games - content budget considerations One area of analysis which is useful to shine a light on is R&D/content spend and how Netflix's shift into games might impact its content budget and profitability 1/
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Nintendo & Sony are changing their subscription policies following a UK competition authority investigation Nintendo: Switch Online to no longer be sold with auto renewal set as the default Sony: Agreed to measures to protect customers who haven’t used subs for a long time
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Console subscription service auto-renewal practices are under investigation by the UK competition authority Microsoft has agreed to a number of improvements to the consumer experience inc: >Pro-rata refunds for annual subs >Inactive membership outreach gov.uk/cma-cases/onli
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Nintendo earnings April to Sept Switch sell-in down 34% yoy to 8.28m units Second half of fiscal year is forecast to be more in line with last year helped by Switch OLED release
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Console gaming market 2021 overview! >Consumer spending on games console hardware, games and games services grew to a record high in 2021 and reached $60bn >The games console market remains in rude health with Ampere forecasting it to grow again in 2022 to over $61 billion 1/9
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A few comments on Epic’s private antitrust lawsuit against Apple: Epic’s anti-monopoly pain points focus on two key App Store elements: having to use Apple’s payment processing (30 % rev share) and having to follow Apple’s app publishing guidelines /1
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Had a chance to try out Razer’s proof of concept Android handheld console at #GDC22 powered by Qualcomm’s Snapdragon G3x Screen and graphics looked great. Whole thing felt very solid and robust. A bit unwieldy
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The strategic rationale for Microsoft acquisition of Discord is part defensive (stopping e.g. Amazon acquire, disrupt Slack, solve Discord threat), part product fit (Xbox, cross-platform building block, cloud gaming) & part immediate rev opp (Azure, Discord sub biz, 120m MAUs)
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India has emerged as an Android mobile-first market and one where games consoles and gaming PCs are under penetrated. It is also a market where Microsoft has strong Azure cloud data center coverage.
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Sony earnings: PS Plus subscribers are up on the previous quarter as you’d expect with substantial PS5 sales (46.4m versus 45.4m) Still down from pandemic peak of 48m at end of 2021
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New report! Microsoft’s Activision acquisition: Implications for the cloud gaming market and industry The commitments that MS has made to the EC competition authority around streaming of Activision games has a collection of implications for the cloud gaming industry 🧵
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Steam platform concurrent users have breached 26m for the first time today Post 1st lockdown growth in Q1 2020, new records for PCCUs have been set in Jan and Feb 2021 Note: in-game CCUs have not matched the record set in March 2020
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Sony shares latest PS Plus numbers: Ended FYQ1 (April to June) at 47.3m, down from 47.4m in previous quarter Assuming this includes conversion of PS Now subscribers, this result is below our expectation even taking into account seasonality and existing Now & Plus overlap
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However, this does underline the difficulty of making a decision about inclusion at launch for games content subscription services It is a double-edge sword. Guaranteed income with smaller upside, versus instability/risk and potential for larger returns
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At the start of each gen I often get asked, ‘is this the last gen of consoles?’ and the latest is no different (I’ve been fielding that question since 2006 lol) Anyway, doesn’t look like Sony thinks it is
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Interesting document. Although not happening yet, extending the 12% rev share for MS Store from PC to console is, IMO, more likely than not & probably a question of timing A move like this will be highly disruptive to the other console platform companies My thoughts 1/
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Microsoft wants to reduce its Xbox store cut to just 12%. A confidential Microsoft document reveals the company's plans, along with some details on Xbox exclusive games. All the details here: theverge.com/2021/5/2/22415
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Xbox Game Pass at 15m active subscribers up from 10m in April. Impressive growth and undoutedly helped by strong promotional offers and lockdown orders during Q2.
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Microsoft confirms it intends to add Activision Blizzard console/PC games to Game Pass on day of release Based on Microsoft’s initial response to the FTC’s legal move to block the ABK deal, day one release of console/PC titles underpins the rationale behind the deal
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Microsoft’s Xbox Series upgrade to its Azure DCs means that, when rolled out, users will now be able to stream Xbox Series games to previous gen Xbox Ones. Very few Xbox Ones are being sold globally in 2021, but this will help breath life into the installed base of 54m devices
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An integrated Microsoft Store & Game Pass proposition on all platforms is key to the company's gaming expansion vision The Actiblizz acquisition makes a mobile storefront more viable; could also mean mobile apps in GP (perhaps a mobile focused tier?), but not possible yet on iOS
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Microsoft is building an Xbox mobile gaming store to take on Apple and Google. A new Xbox Mobile Platform is on the way for mobile devices, and the Activision Blizzard deal is key to this new platform and store. My full report here: theverge.com/2022/10/19/234
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