If I said to you: The person behind that screen is 6ft/183cm tall and weighs 220lb/100kg. I will give you £1000 if you correctly guess their sex.’ Do you pick ‘male’ or ‘female’? 1/
-
Show this thread
-
If I said to you: ‘The person behind that screen can haul a 400lb+/near 200kg deadlift. I will give you £1000 if you correctly guess their sex.’ Do you pick ‘male’ or ‘female’? 2/
1 reply 4 retweets 62 likesShow this thread -
For question 1, you have a 1 in 6 chance of winning if you answer ‘male’, and a 1 in 100 chance of winning if you answer ‘female’. For question 2, the odds are 1 in 2.8 for ‘male’ and 1 in 50 for ‘female’. 3/
6 replies 4 retweets 53 likesShow this thread -
Replying to @FondOfBeetles
I don't want to be a pedant, but that can't be right, can it? If your figures are correct, then there's a just under 5 in 6 chance that the person is neither male nor female! (You need Bayes Theorem to work out probability given your priors).
1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @PhilosophyExp
Dr Emma Hilton Retweeted Dr Emma Hilton
Dr Emma Hilton added,
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
Your general point not only holds, but will be strengthened with proper odds. :)
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.
My apologies. Hopefully the general point holds.