If I said to you: The person behind that screen is 6ft/183cm tall and weighs 220lb/100kg. I will give you £1000 if you correctly guess their sex.’ Do you pick ‘male’ or ‘female’? 1/
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For question 1, you have a 1 in 6 chance of winning if you answer ‘male’, and a 1 in 100 chance of winning if you answer ‘female’. For question 2, the odds are 1 in 2.8 for ‘male’ and 1 in 50 for ‘female’. 3/
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I don't want to be a pedant, but that can't be right, can it? If your figures are correct, then there's a just under 5 in 6 chance that the person is neither male nor female! (You need Bayes Theorem to work out probability given your priors).
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Thanks for the comments on this tweet. Yeah, not sure I gave this odds enough thought
My apologies. Hopefully the general point holds. https://twitter.com/FondOfBeetles/status/1079030388947931136 … -
Your general point not only holds, but will be strengthened with proper odds. :)
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