I estimate that 2016 is about 2 standard deviations of the residuals above trend in our model and so I would guess-cast that 2019 won't be a record - though of course it could be...
Forecasting is a great way to test your skill at understanding processes. Some tentative 'beta' results from @PatrickTBrown31 did well on 2017, let's see how 2018 & 2019 go.
(Role of El Niño in 2019?)
https://patricktbrown.org/2018/01/18/global-temperature-2018-likely-to-be-colder-than-2017-record-high-possible-in-2019/ …pic.twitter.com/sarPxYXvYz
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On the simple assumption each year is, to first-order, an extension of the trend, then Patrick, what makes your 2019 deviate from the trend? What is the process to get annual variations?
End of conversation
New conversation -
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When China massively ramped up her coal consumption in March of 2017, the sudden impact on ENSO, shifting to a strong La Nina indicates that they are basically geoengineering the planet and future projections are not capable of accurately capturing this impact.pic.twitter.com/iC12BrXrL9
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