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Prikvačeni tweet
THREAD Global fossil CO₂ emissions set to grow a slow 0.6% in 2019 [range: -0.2% to +1.5%] with robust growth in oil & natural gas, but a slight decline in coal.
#CarbonBudget#COP25#ClimateAction https://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/index.htm … 1/pic.twitter.com/KmLqunrUQK
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There is a view that amongst some "the problem is solved if we don't call RCP8.5 business as usual". Is this a cheap shot? Scroll up & read the first few tweets in the thread. Keep the comments coming, but preferably on our takeaways at the start of the thread... 10/10
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Our purpose with the comment is quite the opposite. We would like to see scenarios become more useful, more helpful to inform climate policy, more useful to business & investors that need to make decisions, & more useful in helping public understanding. 9/
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There is an argument along the lines that papers like ours lead to less climate action. This would require, on a net basis over time, that our suggestions would change peoples minds to want less climate action. That is a long bow if you ask me... 8/
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There is a discussion on the realism of RCP8.5 emission pathways, particularly coal. There is quite some literature on this https://twitter.com/jritch/status/1223724259547107329 … (& other arguments) But, back to the substance. Either way, RCP8.5 emissions will remain an outlier. Our arguments remain. 7/
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There are also critiques of our comment. One is that we do not consider feedbacks (also the link between emissions & concentration). We discuss this, & yes, this is important & needs more research. RCP8.5 is still an outlier. Zeke explains here https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1222581658408243200 … 6/
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Some of us already work on some of these questions. My colleagues, for example, work closely with financial users on want they want (& need) to deal with climate risks. https://cicero.oslo.no/en/climate-finance-main … We are building capacity & activity in these areas, but lack resources
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Why? First, it is useful to better outline the climate impacts we need to adapt to (including exploring higher risks). Second, there is a gap in the scenarios (& type of scenarios) in the direction we are heading, & these are the real reference for future mitigation action. 4/
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Second, put more focus on mid-range scenarios. Previously, there has been a lot of focus on a high end scenario (RCP8.5), but choices were a little limited. Modellers now have a range of scenario choices. There is no need to focus on an increasingly unlikely worst case. 3/pic.twitter.com/fD0i8UJ86A
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Over time, the probabilistic scenarios could become more quantitative. This would help in risk assessment. This will require research, new methods, etc. What do different user group want from scenarios? How to develop probabilistic scenarios? Etc 2/
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THREAD What were the key takeaways from
@hausfath & my comment last week? First, move to more probabilistic scenarios. Initially, this can be qualitative (to the right of figure), & this would be very helpful to avoid confusion by scenario users. 1/ https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3 …pic.twitter.com/tfXZQYfd8U
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"Our argument isn’t that we should ignore the possibility of getting to 4° or 5°C of warming this century" "It's that you shouldn’t be using unrealistic emissions scenarios to get there"
@hausfath [meaning, your climate model should get you there]https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/01/30/we-may-avoid-very-worst-climate-scenario-next-worst-is-still-pretty-awful/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
"Pathways reflecting current nationally stated mitigation ambition until 2030 are broadly consistent with cost-effective pathways that result in a global warming of about 3°C by 2100, with warming continuing afterwards" According to
#IPCC#SR15 https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Now may be a convenient time to start changing the narrative... "Going forward, we have a much wider toolbox available to look at no-policy baselines. We just need to make sure that we use it." [We also have scenarios with weak & moderate polices]https://www.eenews.net/stories/1062213413 …
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Glen Peters proslijedio/la je Tweet
A reminder of EIA's track record on predicting coal. US coal production is likely to fall below 600 million tons this year -- literally off the charts.pic.twitter.com/hnvd0t44Ju
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Glen Peters proslijedio/la je Tweet
I fully endorse the probabilistic approach and think the IAM community does to some extent. See thread for examples. The main obstacle has been the late focus on multi-model comparisons, aimed at finding insights robust to model uncertainty. Hard to do both. 1/5
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I would add, very little of the discussion on twitter has been around some of our suggestions on scenario selection and a shift to more probabilistic approaches, which I would think of as more controversial...https://twitter.com/RogerPielkeJr/status/1223626409664401408 …
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Glen Peters proslijedio/la je Tweet
The correct response to “So what?” re: RCP8.5 is none of these It is: “RCP8.5 is bad science. And as researchers one of our jobs is to do good science. Sure we have to be smart about social & political contexts of our work. But none of that excuses bad science” Boom. Done. /END
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Some climate scientists & energy experts say the worst-case scenario is increasingly unlikely. That’s stirred debate within the research community over whether a rare bit of good news about global warming has emerged or if [it] is far more complicated.https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/01/30/we-may-avoid-very-worst-climate-scenario-next-worst-is-still-pretty-awful/ …
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Our Nature Comment on RCP8.5 (
@hausfath & myself) & scenario selection has created a good debate, often not on the juicy bits though... If you want an energy take, then listen to@chrisnelder & I discuss! Podcast https://xenetwork.org/ets/episodes/episode-112-climate-science-part-11-climate-confusion/ … Paper https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00177-3 …pic.twitter.com/quIRcaOEw8
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"Stop using the worst-case scenario for climate warming as the most likely outcome – more-realistic baselines make for better policy"https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/01/30/climate-change-worst-case-scenario-misleading-experts-say/2854910001/ …
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