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Prikvačeni tweet
Is America on the brink of a civil war? Want to know about deep structural causes? Read
#AgesOfDiscord https://www.amazon.com/Ages-Discord-Peter-Turchin/dp/0996139540/ …pic.twitter.com/Oz0iA4stCA
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I wouldn't want to meet this on a dark road in Finland....pic.twitter.com/znEY3MnWFO
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
An expanse of ruined pyramids, palaces and plazas in southern Mexico has been identified as the ‘lost’ capital of an influential Maya kingdom called White Dog, a royal centre allied with some of the most powerful Maya kingdoms of the time.https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03883-9 …
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
R0 estimates are very sensitive to assumptions and data quality. Early data coming from massively delayed detection invariably overestimate it. The NYT graphics is right on, as is Peter's overall conclusion: This thing will be dealt with, no problems (China or not).
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
As is clear from the above, I am **not** saying that the authorities should just relax and ride it out.
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
seconded. some calculations:https://twitter.com/aleksj/status/1223084619387547648 …
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The long lag time between infection and detection means that we need to wait longer to project these numbers into the future -- there could be a cycle on top of the exponential, for example.https://twitter.com/yaneerbaryam/status/1223073511532638208 …
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This graphic via NY Times tells you all you need to know about
#coronavirus It's about as contagious as Spanish flu (R0 = 2-3) but an order of magnitude less deadly (~1% compared to 10%). Conclusion: chances of a really bad pandemic are quite low.@lfspinney@yaneerbaryampic.twitter.com/WGdtJHORea
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
"The paper shows that it is possible to predict collapse for a large class of systems that are governed by a linear (or linearized) node dynamics." Leo Horstmeyer, Tuan Pham,
#StefanThurner,@Jan_Korbel in#ScientificReports. More
https://bit.ly/2RAWMoy https://twitter.com/Jan_Korbel/status/1221771991742656513 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
Seshat research assistant Sal Wiltshire writes about her previous training as an historian and its applications to the
#Seshat method of data collection.http://seshatdatabank.info/history-and-the-seshat-method/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
What is particularly interesting that between 1000 and 1500 CE there were two secular cycles in Novgorod. You can see these cycles in the time distribution of birch bark documentspic.twitter.com/3Zgxw83pyY
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
My today's piece for Social Europe "Russia’s path toward a better political capitalism" ( a very diff. take on the Putin shuffle from most)https://www.socialeurope.eu/russias-path-toward-a-better-political-capitalism …
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
More than 1,000 birch bark letters (9th-15th C) were unearthed by archaeologists in Novgorod, Russia.https://twitter.com/ferrisjabr/status/1220788720166559745 …
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
Velikaya Ulitsa (Main Street) boardwalk, ca 1120, as excavated by A. Artsikhovsky in 1953. Veliky Novgorod, Russia
#Seshatpic.twitter.com/QP2AO4gLZu
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
Study using ancient DNA supports view that horse-riding developed on Central Asian steppes in late 2nd mil BCE. This led to increased trade and promoted imperial expansion across Eurasia.https://twitter.com/MPI_SHH/status/1220304233477656576 …
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
Nice to see a mention of
@SeshatDatabank in@alanyliu's book Friending the Past: The Sense of History in the Digital Age (2018, p. 165)!#digitalhumanitiespic.twitter.com/MqvaSwLVdd
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
Many of the methods Etruscans are recognized for (such as granulation, filigree, chasing, and repoussé) were borrowed from other cultures. The reason Etruscan jewelry stands out is because of the ancient metalsmiths’ technical skill and ability to manipulate gold with precision.pic.twitter.com/wi773XzIL8
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Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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Peter Turchin proslijedio/la je Tweet
"If we forget the scale of the Spanish Flu horror, we'll be doomed to repeat it".https://unherd.com/2018/11/dont-remember-100-million-dead/ …
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Does the Spanish Fly epidemic hold lessons for the unfolding
#coronavirus outbreak?@lfspinneypic.twitter.com/JmwWZ5lfcg
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Congrats, Selin! Looking forward to you continuing and developing your role within the
#Seshat project!https://twitter.com/SelinNugent/status/1221022347043463170 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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