Peter SchiffVerified account

Bond investors clearly see #recession, and are pricing in the first rate cuts as early as 2023. But what they don't see is that despite a recession #inflation will stay high. If they do cut inflation will get worse, so they may keep hiking. Either way, #bond investors get killed!

A rare @CNBC guest explained that he is buying #gold to diversify with a store of value. The anchor then asked why he wasn't buying #Bitcoin instead. The question, which reveals a lack of understand of both, would never be asked in reverse to the numerous guests buying Bitcoin!

Mar. #Consumer Sentiment was revised lower to 59.4 as soaring prices weighed down confidence. Long-term expectations of 3% #inflation are clearly no longer anchored to 2%. Pending home sales unexpectedly fell 4.1% in Feb., following a 5.8% drop in Jan. as mortgage rates surged.

Not only is the Treasury yield curve inverted from 5 to 10 years, but 30-year yields are just 10 basis points higher than 5-year yields. By next week the curve will likely invert from 5 to 30 years too. The only thing that will stop a #bond market crash is a #StockMarket crash!

New home sales unexpectedly plunged to 772K in Feb. and Jan. sales were revised down to 778K. The initial estimate for Jan. was 801K and the expectation was for a rise to 810K in Feb. Rising mortgage rates and construction costs are making expensive new homes more unaffordable!

CNBC's @jimcramer just praised #Powell for his big heart. Maybe so, but the problem is that Powell should be making monetary policy using his brain and not his heart. The reason #Fed policy has been so harmful to the middle and lower classes is precisely because it's brainless!

Following the 2008 financial crisis 30-year Treasuries yields briefly hit a spike-low of 2.519%. Is wasn't until yesterday that yields finally climbed above that level. Given that debt and #inflation are much higher now, 30-year yields should soon exceed their 2008 high of 4.8%!

If the #Fed actually starts shirking its balance sheet and continues with its planned interest rate hikes, nothing will stop 10-year #Treasury yields from hitting 5%, perhaps before year-end. Our over-leveraged economy and financial markets can't survive interest rates that high!

Just because we have too much debt to handle historically high interest rates doesn't mean we won't get them. It just means the #economy and the markets will crash when we do. If the #Fed tries to avert that crisis with more QE, it will condemn us to a worse crisis of #inflation!

If the #Fed launches QE5 it will end up owning the entire Treasury #bond market. But that means the real value of Treasuries will collapse, regardless of their market price. QE5 will be so huge that it will crash the #dollar. Owners of Treasuries will get decimated by #inflation!