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  1. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    4. velj

    This chart blows my mind! The US PEG ratio is at an all-time high after almost doubling in the space of 12M to 1.8X – a +4 standard deviation move! US LT EPS growth has never been so expensive. Earnings need to stage a big comeback in ’20 to justify these record valuations.

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    28. sij

    Great interview with Russell Napier (starts about 15 min in). I agree with his conclusion that the next deflationary crisis will trigger MMT. He then brings his deep historical expertise to bear to explain the brave investment world after my Ice Age thesis ends.

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  3. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    26. sij

    I just rewatched The Big Short. Great film but it made me pause to think about BBB bonds with spreads at all time lows and the ISM at 47. What would be the best way to play that the future downgrade rate of BBB is wrong? I think they trip into CCC, which a cant absorb it.

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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    22. sij
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  5. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    22. sij

    This is always a clear sign that the bust is close! I remember hearing similar “end of the business cycle” declarations about ‘The Great Moderation’. Actually didn’t Chancellor Gordon Brown claim that New Labour had ended Boom and Bust. Sadly these claims are always wrong.

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  6. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    Much is made of how interest coverage is high for US stocks despite swelling corporate debt burden. But it is massively skewed by the cash-rich top decile, SocGen notes. Weaker companies look vulnerable.

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  7. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    The number of new houses constructed per person in the rich world has fallen by half since the 1960s

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  8. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    15. sij

    S&P 500 total returns since 1872 is a fun chart from BAML:

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  9. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    16. pro 2019.

    "Technology and globalization have made many discretionary goods cheaper. However, basic costs such as education, housing, and healthcare have ballooned compared to the rate of inflation over the past decade."

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  10. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    12. pro 2019.

    Global stock markets since 1969. Equal Weight beats GDP Weight which beats Market Cap Weight (and likely value beats them all). via

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  11. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    11. pro 2019.

    european growth vs. value valuation spread at ATH

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    10. pro 2019.

    are the cheapest in a generation compared to

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  13. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    11. pro 2019.
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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    11. pro 2019.

    “There’s been a relatively quiet, strategic movement into energy by a group of billionaires” ... hated on ESG grounds, large parts of the ecosystem distressed, worst performing sector of 2019. smart money buying ... what more do u want?

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. stu 2019.

    Here are the average EV/EBITDA multiples of U.S. equities by credit rating. As you can see, the lower quality the credit, the lower the EV/EBITDA multiple. This makes sense. Why then do PE deals, which are B or CCC, trade at >12x EBITDA?

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    16. stu 2019.

    Bloomberg Headline: "Here's the Euphoria" ----------------------------------- NJC: 24/7 Mark-to-Market vs Quarterly Mark-to-What-the-Accounting-Firm-In-Our-Employ-Marks

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    16. stu 2019.
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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet

    This year 16 media firms will spend a total of $100bn on content, roughly the sum invested in America’s oil industry this year

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