If that’s the geo participation in the NYT Poll, then at least a significant part of Biden’s lead in them is in no small part nothing more than response bias and an artifact of the polling mode.
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Is this where you polled? If so, no wonder. This is not representative, at all. Sorry, but it isn’t and is why you were wrong in Florida back in 2018, as well. You straight missed large swathes of voters who are very important.https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1313924285212299265 …
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1. I'd be embarrassed to tweet maps that show such a distribution. 2. Quinnipiac is not a serious poll, hasn't called an election correctly in years, and wrong in Florida for 5 straight cycles, often grossly. So, please stop asking me what I think about that vs. our Trump +1.6.
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In just the latest update, Democrats lost 235, GOP gained 703 registrations in Greene County. That's what I mean by "artifacts" of the polling mode. Trump carried it with 69% of the vote. In NYT, it's 2 to 1 for Biden. That's what happens when you only reach school teachers.
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Here's Gillum +5, upwards of +9(!) if there was an unbelievable projection of the electorate. Education AND region, folks. Region will not fill out with live-caller to cell or landlines. You'll miss vast swathes. Gillum will outperform in Panhandle/Orlando and Biden in Greene.pic.twitter.com/xkEaxD8fAb
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They barely have anything in Erie county, much less the T.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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At this stage in the game, they are all suppression polls. Voting has already started.
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So basically, these polls are missing regions and have ridiculous Democrat turnout assumptions. There are two general themes here. The race is either close in states like Florida or there will be an unheard of in modern times blowout. Both can't be right. I know which I'm with.
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This is what Ohio looked like in our polling. Big difference, and that's because you will never reach everyone using the mode that he does. You will reach more women than men, more liberal/moderate men than conservative, and not a representative income/edu sample, let alone geo.pic.twitter.com/T4vcmVtJ51
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