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When Hillary Clinton barely held on in 2016, she carried the Twin Cities by a much larger margin than this, 64% to 28%. That's a much narrower lead for Joe Biden over Donald Trump, and the president is killing it in the Iron Range, which would flip at least two of the four.https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1303817408361054209 …
A 61/27 lead for Donald Trump in NE Minnesota means Joe Biden can almost assuredly kiss the Iron Range counties of Carlton, St. Louis and Lake, goodbye. There are LOTS of votes in those 3 combined, and Biden is significantly underperforming Hillary Clinton in the Twin Cities.
2 of the 4 what?
The 4 Iron Range counties
The midwest... normal gop including FL, GA, NC, and AZ... and he is re-elected. done. Just have to pray the midwest pulls through. Maricopa primary vote/2016 outcome/no Johnson puts AZ as GOP. NC/FL should be GOP. It all comes down to those 6 midwest states.
They may be defining the Twin Cities differently than you, but I think they're playing with the numbers to avoid putting Trump up. 61-27 in NE MN is fatal for a Democrat and would mean they're losing ground in all of rural MN.
Margin of error is 5! 
Their weighting is unorthodox for Minnesota. I strongly, strongly suspect they that the "South" designation is not traditional.
I take it "Twin Cities" in both instances refers to the metro Twin Cities and not just Hennepin and Ramsey counties; otherwise not the same thing. Suburban belt around these two with big share of votes moved away from GOP in '16.
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