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Prikvačeni tweet
How can we help humans make accurate predictions on complex problems such as predicting clinical trial outcomes? Excited to announce new
@NSF funding to@pytho_io (w.@Superforecastr), together with@SaulehSiddiqui at JHU.https://twitter.com/pytho_io/status/1171040435290157057 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
The latest
@CNN / Register / Selzer poll has been, once again, eerily predictive of the#IowaCaucuses results so far.Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
Estonia e-Residency add in London. Bold ad for a country. Nice,
#Estoniapic.twitter.com/Hb5IItMDEa
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Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
We're taking a different approach to our 2020 modeling BTW -- When back-tested for the 2016 presidential election, a forecasting model based on an MRP-injected polling aggregate achieves a better prediction (lower Brier, RMSE) for each state than an aggregator alone.https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1224066224247791623 …
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Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
*11 Battleground States NBC/WSJ Poll: Biden 49% (+5) Trump 44% Sanders 49% (+3) Trump 46% Trump 49% (+1) Warren 48% Trump 47% (+1) Buttigieg 46% *AZ, CO, FL, ME, MI, MN, NV, NH, NC, PA and WI
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Passed legislation, judicial nominations, and cabinet appointments will likely be similar in the parallel worlds where Sanders vs. Biden is president. Given this, few Democrats, even very left-leaning ones, will find Sanders to have been 20% better president than Biden in 2024.
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Given Sanders' disadvantage in v. Trump, he has to be about 20% better president than Biden in your subjective judgment, in order to make rational sense for you to vote for Sanders in the primary. On the subjective utility scale: Trump 0 Biden 1 Sanders 1.2+
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So let's say, conservatively, that they have the following chances of winning general election if nominated: Biden 60% Sanders 50% The extra 10% for Biden is a conservative translation of poll differentials int probability of winning.
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Consider this: Biden is +5.4 points v. Trump nationally. Sanders is +3.7 points v. Trump. Also, Biden outperforms in key states like PA.https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_biden-6247.html …
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Persuasive arguments that Democrats will be similar in terms of actual enacted policies. So electability should loom large in the eyes of Dem primary voters, policy preferences much less so.https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/opinion/does-it-matter-who-the-democrats-choose.html …
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Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
1/There are two purposes of meritocracy: A) allocation (send people to what they do best) B) incentives (make people try hard). I think meritocracy helps with both of these, but a lot less than we tend to think.
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Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
Incredible de facto social science experiment. Collective honking resets red light countdown to more time. Will it reduce honking? I think sohttps://twitter.com/sandeepanand12/status/1223171949624528896 …
1:52Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
#Updated@FiveThirtyEight Pledged Delegates Estimate (1990 needed to win the nomination) Biden 1720 Sanders 1286 Warren 439 Buttigieg 340Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
Causal identification of
@NateSilver538's impact on prediction markets: - Nate Silver updates model to reflect previous error: https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1222522839745679360?s=21 … - Prediction markets incorporate new forecast. They had previously mispriced the model error. h/t@azsavovpic.twitter.com/Nrg5cvGkg6
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Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
Read this timely piece in the
@nytimes by@AryAmerikaner about the importance of data for making school funding fairer.https://twitter.com/AryAmerikaner/status/1222706021388496898 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
Watch the tax rate drop from 70% to 23% for America's 400 richest households https://nytimes.com/interactive/2019/10/06/opinion/income-tax-rate-wealthy.html …pic.twitter.com/dfJteiqRWi
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Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
Hello everyone, Please keep this plot in mind before naively assuming that Trump's approval rating translates directly to his vote margin. Shown here: even on the generic POTUS ballot, that's not true. kthxbyepic.twitter.com/2bdLyoZrA7
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Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
Got analytics chops?! Let's see 'em. Registration dates in the people analytics + non-profit world: 1) student case competition with UNICEF data (Jan 31), and 2) dataviz competition with Doctors Without Borders (Feb 2). For
@WhartonPAC in Philly Apr 2/3:https://wpa.wharton.upenn.edu/2020-conference-competitions/ …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
“The reason the world seemed like a better place during your childhood is because you were a child.” - Jon Stewart
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Pavel Atanasov proslijedio/la je Tweet
This week at Davos,
@GlblCtzn launched a call for billionaires to give while they live. 2,150 billionaires have $10t collective wealth, yet most give less than 1% a year. The most generous give 4% or more, and done well, that has huge impacthttps://www.globalcitizen.org/en/content/priyanka-chopra-jonas-billionaires-extreme-poverty/ …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Harvesting the wisdom of crowds for election predictions using the Bayesian Truth Serum.https://osf.io/rdjhs
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