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Will a cold European winter exacerbate the energy crisis? We will be tracking the latest outlooks on the severity of the upcoming winter as the cold season draws near and the picture becomes clearer. Background here and below: thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/

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First, variability in European winter weather is substantially impacted by a weather phenomenon called the North Atlantic Oscillation, which affects whether northern Europe is downstream of mild, moist air from the north Atlantic or cold, dry air from the Arctic.

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The North Atlantic Oscillation has been demonstrated to have some predictability on seasonal timescales, but models do not yet paint a consistent picture regarding the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation for this upcoming winter. apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opench

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Models are consistent, however, in predicting a roughly 60% chance that this winter will see average to above average temperatures over Europe. The best estimate would be 0°C to 2°C above recent average winter temperatures. tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/model

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A colder than average winter, though, is still very much a possibility (about a 40% chance). iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/

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It is also more likely than not that the United States and East Asia will experience warmer than average winters. There is roughly a 70% chance of a warmer than average winter in both the continental United States and eastern China.

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