A few more quick notes on polling/turnout...
It looks like African American turnout may have been way down. This was probably not factored in to most turnout models.
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Pre-election data implied a reduction in margin among blacks that I'm not sure people quite believed.
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In fact the surprise of the election, beyond the Rust Belt states, is that Trump improved upon Romney's performance with minorities.
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That was unthinkable and against all conventional wisdom
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Not sure if I would believe exit polls but evidence is certainly there from county returns (no big swing in black belt/Latino areas)
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Electorate was probably a point more white, and a point less black, than most pollsters probably thought. Accounting for ~1% off the top
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College/non college white split materialized and WITH A VENGEANCE. It seemed though that Dems had tapped out minorities though.
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In fact, not only was the minority vote a wash, it was probably a slight net positive for Trump.
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Much caution in using exit polls to figure out small groups like Asians though. That will be the work of voter file analysis.
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@PatrickRuffini I was just looking for those numbers; what percent of the electorate was African-American this time around? -
@PatrickRuffini Possibly a high number of black former military and families that would not support liar Clinton nor Trump stayed home. -
@PatrickRuffini What? They thought it would be at Obama levels? -
Why do black people hate Hillary so much? Racism?
@PatrickRuffini -
@PatrickRuffini I've been saying they wouldn't turn out for a long time. -
@PatrickRuffini So you're saying blacks are racist. -
@PatrickRuffini@pronkville08 like that for a white lady? Come on. -
@PatrickRuffini@pronkville08 AAs turned out in record#s for the first black POTUS. As much as they may hate Trump, they gonna come out -
@PatrickRuffini@KSoltisAnderson How much lack of enthusiasm, and how much voter discouragement issues? -
@PatrickRuffini I guess Obama can now say this was the personal insult he spoke about -
@PatrickRuffini just like in 2008 they underestimated AA turnout models
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