Skip to content
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • Moments Moments Moments, current page.

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
PatrickRuffini's profile
Patrick Ruffini
Patrick Ruffini
Patrick Ruffini
Verified account
@PatrickRuffini

Tweets

Patrick RuffiniVerified account

@PatrickRuffini

Republican pollster, wearer of many hats, long-suffering Arsenal fan. Writing a book on the multi-racial populist future of American politics.

Washington, DC
echeloninsights.com/TheIntersection
Joined March 2007

Tweets

  • © 2021 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 15 Dec 2020

    I haven't posted many maps and charts post-election because I'm hesitant to do with incomplete data given the slow count. Here are a few to start out with. Here's a final county-level swing map for the Lower 48.pic.twitter.com/ETDYKeFPql

    6:46 AM - 15 Dec 2020
    • 33 Retweets
    • 104 Likes
    • Alexander Yasha Kharrati 🇺🇸 🤠 Bassaces Energy Parks Eli Trimble Taylor Peck Malik Ariovistus Mainstream News Enjoyer
    8 replies 33 retweets 104 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 15 Dec 2020

        And because it's tradition I suppose, the county-level results.pic.twitter.com/uWm32vlkAo

        2 replies 12 retweets 43 likes
        Show this thread
      3. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 15 Dec 2020

        Turnout increase by county. Some outliers: College towns like State College, PA and Athens, OH posted declines or slight increases. Dallas County, IA is the Collin County of the Midwest. It posted a 46% increase in raw votes. Turnout drop in AR coincided with swing to Trump.pic.twitter.com/NJDhE7OpTu

        4 replies 3 retweets 12 likes
        Show this thread
      4. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 15 Dec 2020

        College whites drove the swing to Biden.pic.twitter.com/XgZutrurqT

        7 replies 18 retweets 61 likes
        Show this thread
      5. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 15 Dec 2020

        Three groups shifted in 2020: College whites to Biden, and as they got over 2016, Hispanics and Mormons to Trump. Blacks and Hispanics didn't shift. County-level Asian data isn't great but shifts in Hawaii and Santa Clara County, CA suggest they swung to Trump too.pic.twitter.com/xro2qPDa4v

        8 replies 13 retweets 36 likes
        Show this thread
      6. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 15 Dec 2020

        Turnout increases led to a swing to Biden nationally, though there were plenty of new votes for Trump in this bunch and who benefits from higher turnout is cycle-specific. The trendline implies that Biden won the 20M new voters in 2020 by about 15 points.pic.twitter.com/oqWsr7pa73

        2 replies 7 retweets 29 likes
        Show this thread
      7. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 15 Dec 2020

        The more college-educated whites in a county, the better he did vs. 2016 - and the more he benefited from higher turnout.pic.twitter.com/Uyd9XekcHh

        4 replies 9 retweets 25 likes
        Show this thread
      8. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 15 Dec 2020

        Returning to the tweets below, polls basically did no better than a coin toss in predicting which way counties outside heavily Latino areas would shift in 2020 if you apply their national-level shifts to individual counties. https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1337503499375046659 …pic.twitter.com/e0u6y0cTkS

        1 reply 3 retweets 12 likes
        Show this thread
      9. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 15 Dec 2020

        As a result, polls missed on both sides of the equation. If you apply the pre-election national demographic shifts to counties, you get this first-of-its-kind map of estimated county-level polling error. (Red = missed Trump, Blue = missed Biden.)pic.twitter.com/n3yzT46w0f

        1 reply 5 retweets 13 likes
        Show this thread
      10. End of conversation
      1. New conversation
      2. Nick Mastro‏ @NickMastro13 15 Dec 2020
        Replying to @PatrickRuffini

        Utah/parts of Idaho are very special cases: Biden’s vote share increased across the board but many McMullin voters still went to Trump and increased his margin.

        1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
      3. The Franchise, MPA  🇺🇸 🇩🇰 🇬🇧‏ @CAFranchise 15 Dec 2020
        Replying to @NickMastro13 @PatrickRuffini

        Raw margin is a few points towards Trump, two-party share is a few points towards Biden.

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      4. End of conversation

    Loading seems to be taking a while.

    Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

      Promoted Tweet

      false

      • © 2021 Twitter
      • About
      • Help Center
      • Terms
      • Privacy policy
      • Cookies
      • Ads info