And because it's tradition I suppose, the county-level results.pic.twitter.com/uWm32vlkAo
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And because it's tradition I suppose, the county-level results.pic.twitter.com/uWm32vlkAo
Turnout increase by county. Some outliers: College towns like State College, PA and Athens, OH posted declines or slight increases. Dallas County, IA is the Collin County of the Midwest. It posted a 46% increase in raw votes. Turnout drop in AR coincided with swing to Trump.pic.twitter.com/NJDhE7OpTu
Three groups shifted in 2020: College whites to Biden, and as they got over 2016, Hispanics and Mormons to Trump. Blacks and Hispanics didn't shift. County-level Asian data isn't great but shifts in Hawaii and Santa Clara County, CA suggest they swung to Trump too.pic.twitter.com/xro2qPDa4v
Turnout increases led to a swing to Biden nationally, though there were plenty of new votes for Trump in this bunch and who benefits from higher turnout is cycle-specific. The trendline implies that Biden won the 20M new voters in 2020 by about 15 points.pic.twitter.com/oqWsr7pa73
The more college-educated whites in a county, the better he did vs. 2016 - and the more he benefited from higher turnout.pic.twitter.com/Uyd9XekcHh
Returning to the tweets below, polls basically did no better than a coin toss in predicting which way counties outside heavily Latino areas would shift in 2020 if you apply their national-level shifts to individual counties. https://twitter.com/PatrickRuffini/status/1337503499375046659 …pic.twitter.com/e0u6y0cTkS
As a result, polls missed on both sides of the equation. If you apply the pre-election national demographic shifts to counties, you get this first-of-its-kind map of estimated county-level polling error. (Red = missed Trump, Blue = missed Biden.)pic.twitter.com/n3yzT46w0f
Utah/parts of Idaho are very special cases: Biden’s vote share increased across the board but many McMullin voters still went to Trump and increased his margin.
Raw margin is a few points towards Trump, two-party share is a few points towards Biden.
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