Current Presidential Margin: D+2.9 Current House Margin excluding uncontested races: R+0.2 House Republican overperformance: R+3.1
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In a group of 12 targeted suburban counties ranging from Hamilton County, IN to St. Louis County, MO to Orange County, CA, House Republicans performed 4.5 points better than Donald Trump, stronger than their 3 point overperformance overall.
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Also Sanford Bishop in the 2nd SW GA
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PA-01 is also pretty distinct.
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Cameron Webb's performance in VA-05 is also impressive.
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What the hell happened in the southern point of Texas? Every amazing chart I've seen out of the election shows it as a huge outlier - but I haven't seen any explanation of why or how.
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The Rio Grande Valley doesn’t want illegal immigrants but they also don’t want a wall and didn’t like Trump’s rhetoric in 2016. In this cycle he was less “culturally insensitive” in his language.
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Western MN stands out to me.
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Trump on ballot helps downballot GOP in 2 ways: (1) brings out pro-Trump voters who might not otherwise vote, and (2) Indies who voted D in 2018 because it was the only way to protest Trump can now vote against Trump directly--and resume their habit of voting GOP downballot.
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