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PatrickRuffini's profile
Patrick Ruffini
Patrick Ruffini
Patrick Ruffini
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@PatrickRuffini

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Patrick RuffiniVerified account

@PatrickRuffini

Republican pollster, wearer of many hats, long-suffering Arsenal fan. Writing a book on the multi-racial populist future of American politics.

Washington, DC
echeloninsights.com/TheIntersection
Joined March 2007

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    1. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 13 Jun 2019

      This study of Gen X/Millennials/Gen Z outvoting older generations made the rounds a couple of weeks ago. That's an important way of looking at it, but I'm not sure it's the most relevant or correct take. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/05/29/gen-z-millennials-and-gen-x-outvoted-older-generations-in-2018-midterms/ …

      3 replies 7 retweets 13 likes
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    2. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 13 Jun 2019

      Millennial turnout jumped relative to the previous midterm. Seems like a big jump, no?pic.twitter.com/2p5YKm54NA

      1 reply 3 retweets 8 likes
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    3. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 13 Jun 2019

      Naturally, this leads us to ask: What's going on with *millennials*? But turnout was up across the board, across all groups. Millennials jumped more. Why? Because they're the lowest turnout voters. More interest in the election will affect the lowest-turnout voters the most!

      1 reply 3 retweets 15 likes
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    4. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 13 Jun 2019

      Turnout in the midterms was massive, closer to a Presidential than a midterm. And voter turnout by age group was exactly what you'd expect if you blended the average midterm with the average presidential. Nothing happened specifically to millennials. More people voted, full stop.

      2 replies 3 retweets 14 likes
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    5. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 13 Jun 2019

      Here's how we know. This is a plot of turnout scores comparing a Presidential and an (average) midterm. The highest turnout (mostly older) voters vote at nearly the same rates in both *because there's no room for them to grow.* Most of the difference comes from low turnout voterspic.twitter.com/OAqqsUfeZm

      1 reply 1 retweet 5 likes
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    6. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 13 Jun 2019

      The media has an easier time dealing with *categories* (millennials! vs. Gen Z! vs. Boomers!) when reality is usually a function of continuous probabilities.

      1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
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    7. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 13 Jun 2019

      The second problem I have with this way of looking at it: People are getting older! Millennials are closing in on 40! Gen Xers are *55*. This is actually a story of people getting older framed as a story of youth voting power.

      3 replies 2 retweets 17 likes
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    8. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 13 Jun 2019

      Did you know? The American electorate is growing *older* over time, not younger. In 20 years, voters over 65 will be roughly a third of all Presidential voters, up from around 25% today.

      4 replies 13 retweets 32 likes
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    9. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 13 Jun 2019

      The growing diversity of the American electorate gets all the press, but the aging of the electorate may be just as important a trend, and no one talks about it.

      2 replies 4 retweets 22 likes
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    10. Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 13 Jun 2019

      At some point we started thinking of the Boomers as "old" when it was within my political lifetime that they defined youthful energy and generational change. "Generations" is really not the correct way of evaluating shifts in the electorate over time.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A3JA1nWPFqM …

      2 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
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      Patrick Ruffini‏Verified account @PatrickRuffini 13 Jun 2019

      What’s certainly the case: Turnout will reach historic proportions in 2020 and young voters will be a bigger slice of the pie. Ignore them at your peril. But it won’t be because only young people were more motivated but because everyone was

      8:41 AM - 13 Jun 2019
      • 3 Retweets
      • 11 Likes
      • Jonathan Lai 🙊 賴柏羽 Sabrina. 🌈 There’s No “I” in Teamocil Nicholas Everhart Natalie Grant Gregory FactRage Daniel Vaughan Liam Donovan
      5 replies 3 retweets 11 likes
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        2. Natalie‏ @Natgcoh 13 Jun 2019
          Replying to @BryGuyILYHN @PatrickRuffini

          LOL no

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. End of conversation
        1. Kristen Soltis Anderson‏Verified account @KSoltisAnderson 13 Jun 2019
          Replying to @PatrickRuffini

          This thread is hate speech

          0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
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        1. Comfortably Smug‏ @ComfortablySmug 13 Jun 2019
          Replying to @PatrickRuffini

          Ok this is great but the question remains, how can we suppress the millennial vote?

          1 reply 0 retweets 15 likes
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