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Prikvačeni tweet
FUD is abundant when it comes to the behaviour of #Bitcoin
miners.
“They’re dumping reserves! They’re about to capitulate! Hashwars, death spirals, short-selling-as-a-hedge!”
This is a thread on the influence miners actually have over #BTC
prices
https://medium.com/paradigma-capital/stop-blaming-miners-for-falling-btc-prices-3c2a149cde11 …Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
@lawmaster's break down is useful here. It means that Bitcoin protects itself with a "defense budget" ~200x smaller (~0.5%) than that of the US military.https://twitter.com/lawmaster/status/1217822684521926659 …
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The DoD will spend twice as much on "cyberstrategy" (in 2020) as the whole Bitcoin network will "spend" to stay alivepic.twitter.com/B4k5qitGgh
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Paradigma proslijedio/la je Tweet
Fantastic analysis by
@ParadigmaBR! TL;DR: - Miners actually command small % of BTC “selling-power” - No meaningful correlation between miner outflows to exchanges and BTC priceshttps://medium.com/paradigma-capital/stop-blaming-miners-for-falling-btc-prices-3c2a149cde11 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Sometimes, there’s countless interpretations for the very same datapoint.
Big opp. for those who bring creativity (analysis) & increased rigour (synthesis) to this space.
Expect much more FUDdy relationships to be dispelled…
…and surprising ones to be revealed
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Finally, remember:
We take for granted that the blockchain gives us “canonical data”...
...but it doesn’t give us “canonical heuristics”.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
…which doesn’t mean we falsified the hypothesis that they exist (or that they influence prices to some extent).
@TokenAnalyst provides dozens of other datasets and endless metrics. We encourage you to deep dive & dig for signals in the noise
https://docs.tokenanalyst.io/ Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
TL;DR:
Miners actually command a tiny portion of all BTC “selling-power” in the markets;
It ain’t simple to fully represent on chain flows of miners;
We didn’t identify meaningful bivariate relationships between miner outflows to exchanges and BTC prices…Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
If there’s negligible correlation, we’re much more unlikely to find any causation - so that’s where we stop for now. Later on, we'll explore alternative ways of assessing the raw on-chain fingerprint left by miners.
Stay tuned.Prikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Apart from this, there's low likelihood of any meaningful cross-correlation, independently of the chosen lag.
Doesn't seem like miners flushing fresh coins to cyber-casinos bear serious implications for prices; neither before, nor at the time, or after it happens.pic.twitter.com/2iDAsoK8iE
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Distinct aggregations on the analysed sample don’t seem to unearth special insight.
No matter if we’re looking at daily, weekly or monthly data - all we see is a discreet down trend in correlation with price returns as the window gets wider.
Plots for total outflows
pic.twitter.com/UmvUgjCeWQ
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From what we can gather, miner outflows don't reliably describe price returns over time. Neither "timely" pools nor consist/ly active ones display movements in tandem w/ those of prices. E.g. for
@slush_pool & TopBTC, corr. coefficients (already low) are stat. insignificant.pic.twitter.com/uRd6g0jXt5
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- Not all pool addresses look (can be tracked) equal; - Our sample likely covers 1-5% of the observed phenomenon (more on the article); - There’s exchanges (and pools) not mapped in the sample; - “Outflow to Exchange” =! selling With these in mind, let’s look at daily data:pic.twitter.com/P9ZgbCAb3F
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While it may seem logical that miners “sell more when they’re either pessimistic abt. short term price prospects or cash-desperate”, one must be v. cautious w/ assumptions.
Below we dissect the Miner Outflows dataset from @TokenAnalyst (https://docs.tokenanalyst.io/#bitcoin-miner-flows …). Few caveats:pic.twitter.com/3YJIfChbpp
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Address clustering comes in as a handy technique here to measure specific inflows/outflows - how much are certain miners receiving or sending out.
A popular visual depiction is that of pools’ monthly outflows to exchanges (linear and log scale below):pic.twitter.com/yvfql6iCHe
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Still, one may see miners as a more educated slice of the market, somehow + informed of the future direction of prices.
They exercise 1ºary control over supply dynamics, after all.
Most pools self-identify on coinbase txs. nowadays. That’s how you end up w/ plots like:pic.twitter.com/ew3QfRBbl2
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As you know, most of the volumes flow off-chain, these days.
Hence, miners’ "proportion of overall BTC trades" is obviously even more insignificant.
Check this approx. comparison that includes spot (10% of reported) and derivatives (@BitMex only here) markets
pic.twitter.com/tz88VZ205NPrikaži ovu nitHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
It’s way harder to affirm what *causes* price movements than it is to assert what *does not*.
Miner’s may have had a stronghold of the BTC market early on. But that changed fast.
Miners’ share of on-chain volume (MSV) is a metric that makes this clear, 100%->0.1% in 3ypic.twitter.com/NSsquPMhSU
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Brasileiro, batalhador, na luta p/ entender a fundo a economia do #Bitcoin
... aí vem um gringo e inventa teoria pra qual não tem nem tradução?
Não se preocupe. Aqui vai um breve guia EM PORTUGUÊS para entender o Stock to Flow (Taxa de Escassez)
https://medium.com/@felipegachopereira/a-taxa-de-escassez-stock-to-flow-e-os-modelos-de-valora%C3%A7%C3%A3o-do-bitcoin-4de642bec7e1 …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
In respect to @MakerDAO's#MCD
news, here's a chart of weekly price returns for (19) tokens that went through major upgrades (when already liquid)
x axis = days leading to & after the event
pic.twitter.com/116DiIUNCi
Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi
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