Paradigma

@ParadigmaBR

🗝 Money is transient. Wealth is not.

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Vrijeme pridruživanja: studeni 2018.

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  1. Prikvačeni tweet
    28. stu 2019.

    🔊 FUD is abundant when it comes to the behaviour of miners. “They’re dumping reserves! They’re about to capitulate! Hashwars, death spirals, short-selling-as-a-hedge!” This is a thread on the influence miners actually have over prices👇

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  2. 21. sij

    's break down is useful here. It means that Bitcoin protects itself with a "defense budget" ~200x smaller (~0.5%) than that of the US military.

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  3. 21. sij

    🎖️ The DoD will spend twice as much on "cyberstrategy" (in 2020) as the whole Bitcoin network will "spend" to stay alive

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  4. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    2. pro 2019.

    Fantastic analysis by ! TL;DR: - Miners actually command small % of BTC “selling-power” - No meaningful correlation between miner outflows to exchanges and BTC prices

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  5. 28. stu 2019.

    💭 Sometimes, there’s countless interpretations for the very same datapoint. Big opp. for those who bring creativity (analysis) & increased rigour (synthesis) to this space. Expect much more FUDdy relationships to be dispelled… …and surprising ones to be revealed 😉 👋

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  6. 28. stu 2019.

    📝 Finally, remember: ⛓️ We take for granted that the blockchain gives us “canonical data”... ...but it doesn’t give us “canonical heuristics”.

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  7. 28. stu 2019.

    …which doesn’t mean we falsified the hypothesis that they exist (or that they influence prices to some extent). 📚 provides dozens of other datasets and endless metrics. We encourage you to deep dive & dig for signals in the noise👇 🔗

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  8. 28. stu 2019.

    📜 TL;DR: 🐞 Miners actually command a tiny portion of all BTC “selling-power” in the markets; 🦠 It ain’t simple to fully represent on chain flows of miners; 🚫 We didn’t identify meaningful bivariate relationships between miner outflows to exchanges and BTC prices…

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  9. 28. stu 2019.

    If there’s negligible correlation, we’re much more unlikely to find any causation - so that’s where we stop for now. Later on, we'll explore alternative ways of assessing the raw on-chain fingerprint left by miners.
 👀 Stay tuned.

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  10. 28. stu 2019.

    🔀 Apart from this, there's low likelihood of any meaningful cross-correlation, independently of the chosen lag. Doesn't seem like miners flushing fresh coins to cyber-casinos bear serious implications for prices; neither before, nor at the time, or after it happens.

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  11. 28. stu 2019.

    📅 Distinct aggregations on the analysed sample don’t seem to unearth special insight.

 No matter if we’re looking at daily, weekly or monthly data - all we see is a discreet down trend in correlation with price returns as the window gets wider. Plots for total outflows👇

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  12. 28. stu 2019.

    From what we can gather, miner outflows don't reliably describe price returns over time. Neither "timely" pools nor consist/ly active ones display movements in tandem w/ those of prices. E.g. for & TopBTC, corr. coefficients (already low) are stat. insignificant.

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  13. 28. stu 2019.

    - Not all pool addresses look (can be tracked) equal; - Our sample likely covers 1-5% of the observed phenomenon (more on the article); - There’s exchanges (and pools) not mapped in the sample; - “Outflow to Exchange” =! selling With these in mind, let’s look at daily data:

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  14. 28. stu 2019.

    👷 While it may seem logical that miners “sell more when they’re either pessimistic abt. short term price prospects or cash-desperate”, one must be v. cautious w/ assumptions. Below we dissect the Miner Outflows dataset from (). Few caveats:

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  15. 28. stu 2019.

    📦 Address clustering comes in as a handy technique here to measure specific inflows/outflows - how much are certain miners receiving or sending out. 📊 A popular visual depiction is that of pools’ monthly outflows to exchanges (linear and log scale below):

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  16. 28. stu 2019.

    ⛏️ Still, one may see miners as a more educated slice of the market, somehow + informed of the future direction of prices. 💎 They exercise 1ºary control over supply dynamics, after all. Most pools self-identify on coinbase txs. nowadays. That’s how you end up w/ plots like:

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  17. 28. stu 2019.

    As you know, most of the volumes flow off-chain, these days. 🐜 Hence, miners’ "proportion of overall BTC trades" is obviously even more insignificant. 🎯 Check this approx. comparison that includes spot (10% of reported) and derivatives ( only here) markets 👇

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  18. 28. stu 2019.

    ⚠️ It’s way harder to affirm what *causes* price movements than it is to assert what *does not*. ⏱️ Miner’s may have had a stronghold of the BTC market early on. But that changed fast. Miners’ share of on-chain volume (MSV) is a metric that makes this clear, 100%->0.1% in 3y

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  19. 21. stu 2019.

    🇧🇷 Brasileiro, batalhador, na luta p/ entender a fundo a economia do ... aí vem um gringo e inventa teoria pra qual não tem nem tradução? 🚰 Não se preocupe. Aqui vai um breve guia EM PORTUGUÊS para entender o Stock to Flow (Taxa de Escassez) 👇

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  20. 19. stu 2019.

    📉 In respect to 's news, here's a chart of weekly price returns for (19) tokens that went through major upgrades (when already liquid) x axis = days leading to & after the event 👇

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