Dr. Tetlock, can you talk more about this? Last night I was thinking of a problem in managing uncertainties that relates to this. Specifically, in a risk management perspective it's really difficult to get people to come up with good probability estimates--esp. for uncertainties.
-
-
-
I see this as two problems. 1) As you well know, people have difficulty coming up with probability estimates. 2) This is compounded in regard to uncertainties because--as you get at in this paper--the assumptions are actually critical to thinking about what those prob should be.
- Show replies
New conversation -
-
-
I’m mostly on your side here, but I think this is a strawman version of Taleb’s argument. There are certainly generic interventions you can make that enable good performance across a wide class of risks, and Taleb’s point is to focus on the generic rather than specific.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
-
-
Read your book in a couple of days last week. Loved it. Thank you!
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.