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PTetlock's profile
Philip E. Tetlock
Philip E. Tetlock
Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock

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Philip E. Tetlock

@PTetlock

Annenberg University Professor, Wharton & School of Arts and Sciences (Psychology & Political Science)

Philadelphia, PA
amzn.to/1FWLGAD
Joined October 2011

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    Philip E. Tetlock‏ @PTetlock Jan 8
    • Report Tweet

    “Superforecasters” did so well in tournaments because our scientific competitors were allergic to the cognitive elitism of tracking above-average people into superteams. Tracking had exactly the inequality-amplifying effect that egalitarians fear tracking in schools will havepic.twitter.com/vGgWuhywmj

    8:33 AM - 8 Jan 2020
    • 21 Retweets
    • 100 Likes
    • (((Rich Stein))) Chiffrephile New Year, New Machine Nicholas Sarwark PEEFsmash Ronald Dorman Ricardo Ceneviva daniel f stone Tech Sergeant Kaplan Richard Hanania
    10 replies 21 retweets 100 likes
      1. New conversation
      2. Robin Hanson‏Verified account @robinhanson Jan 8
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @PTetlock

        Do you have a particular competitor in mind here? I don't see our Daggre team as having been averse to tracking. @ctwardy

        1 reply 0 retweets 6 likes
      3. Charles R. Twardy‏ @ctwardy Jan 8
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @robinhanson @PTetlock

        Yes/No: Mark Burgman (our team) pushed hard to diversify the Delphi groups, & disliked the ACE requirement to have a Bachelor's. But later made his own superteams. In the market, we mostly scrambled for ANY participation, partly because @PTetlock got there first. ;-)

        3 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
      4. 6 more replies
      1. Alex Tabarrok‏ @ATabarrok Jan 10
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @PTetlock

        This interview with Magnus Carlsen on fantasy football is pretty funny. I'm not doing anything special, he says, just poring over data and using statistics to identify undervalued players!https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/jan/09/magnus-carlsen-i-will-always-be-proud-no1-fantasy-football-chess …

        0 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
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      1. New conversation
      2. SuperBowlSuperBrowns‏ @jkap44 Jan 8
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        Replying to @PTetlock

        how can I be involved with superforecasters? I've done 538 2 years in a row and beat their algo both years

        1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      3. Superforecastr‏ @Superforecastr Jan 9
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @jkap44

        Our NSF research will be seeking volunteers soon to sign up. Follow @HumanForests and either my and/or @PavelDAtanasov feeds for more info to join as we get closer to launch, exp in May 2020

        1 reply 1 retweet 1 like
      4. 1 more reply
      1. dan dennis‏ @danbdennis Jan 8
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        Replying to @PTetlock

        Everyone has the right to the best education - and it is in the interest of society that the talents of all citizens are developed optimally. As someone who went to a bad school, I know how dispiriting it is to sit in lessons that are too easy.

        0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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      1. Stefan Schubert‏ @StefanFSchubert Jan 8
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        Replying to @PTetlock

        Sorry, who were your scientific competitors? Is there a paper on this? Very interesting, thanks!

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
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      1. Laura, no doubt‏ @VictoriaBrill2 Jan 9
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        Replying to @PTetlock @bryan_caplan

        "Will have"? School tracking has been studied a lot, but needs to be studied better. In my case, it helped inequality (as my mom made LMC income) and efficiency (as I could not stand the boredom of regular classes). Here's a good 2019 literature survey. https://econweb.ucsd.edu/~jbetts/Pub/A73%20Pre-Publication%20Version%20Betts%20%20tracking%20Handbook%20Post%20Conf%20draft%202009%2009%2019.pdf …

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      2. Jurij Fedorov‏ @jurijfedorov Jan 8
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        Replying to @PTetlock @bryan_caplan

        I've read this kind of statement several times in academic journals: "While IQ is the best predictor of job performance the tests are racist and we have laws against using them. Because they lead to companies not hiring enough people from certain races."

        1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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