Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.

For the best Twitter experience, please use Microsoft Edge, or install the Twitter app from Microsoft Store.

  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?

    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
PTetlock's profile
Philip E. Tetlock
Philip E. Tetlock
Philip E. Tetlock
@PTetlock

Tweets

Philip E. Tetlock

@PTetlock

Annenberg University Professor, Wharton & School of Arts and Sciences (Psychology & Political Science)

Philadelphia, PA
amzn.to/1FWLGAD
Joined October 2011

Tweets

  • © 2020 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list


    Under 100 characters, optional

    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    Philip E. Tetlock‏ @PTetlock 29 Dec 2019
    • Report Tweet

    Philip E. Tetlock Retweeted Yascha Mounk

    A thoughtful effort to anticipate key themes in the 2020s. Unfortunately, its first falsifiable forecast is false. People often over-predict change (e.g., Ch. 2, Expert Political Judgment). One reason: we get more credit for correctly predicting change than the boring status quohttps://twitter.com/Yascha_Mounk/status/1210931176212516864 …

    Philip E. Tetlock added,

    Yascha MounkVerified account @Yascha_Mounk
    When imagining the future, it’s easy to think that most things will stay the same. But the world today is very different from that in 2010. And the world in 2010 was very different from that in 2000. ➡️The one certainty is that things will change more than we tend to assume.
    Show this thread
    3:18 AM - 29 Dec 2019
    • 27 Retweets
    • 119 Likes
    • Steve Hou Peter Kreko Dmitry Saava Jimmy Steier Keith Ensemble Capital ibrahim Occam Gh-Em Sp
    7 replies 27 retweets 119 likes
      1. Steve Sailer‏ @Steve_Sailer 29 Dec 2019
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @PTetlock

        Most things keep on keeping on (most of the time). The main change in my daily life between 2000 and 2010 and 2020 is that my computer screen has grown from 15" to 24" to ... 43".

        0 replies 0 retweets 5 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Dan Gardner‏ @dgardner 29 Dec 2019
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @PTetlock

        And how do we even categorize what (I suspect) is the most common tendency in year-end writing: “extend the trend”? eg “the rising rate of terrorism will get much worse” or “stocks will soar to another record high.” Are these predictions of change or the status quo?

        0 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Trevor G. Kerr‏ @tgk3130 29 Dec 2019
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @PTetlock

        Why wld political evolution be keyed to the turn of an artificial construct - decade?

        0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. Michael C. Horowitz‏ @mchorowitz 29 Dec 2019
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @PTetlock

        Good point...

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
    1. This Tweet is unavailable.
      1. Joshua Taehyun Kim‏ @jtk0621 Jan 21
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @PTetlock @asymmetricinfo

        I think people overpredict change on a one year scale but underprerict over 10 years

        0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo
      1. alluvial2019‏ @alluvial2019 29 Dec 2019
        • Report Tweet
        Replying to @PTetlock

        What is false exactly?

        0 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
        Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. Undo
        Undo

    Loading seems to be taking a while.

    Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

      Promoted Tweet

      false

      • © 2020 Twitter
      • About
      • Help Center
      • Terms
      • Privacy policy
      • Imprint
      • Cookies
      • Ads info