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Philip J. Crowley
@PJCrowley
Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State and author of Red Line: American Foreign Policy in a Time of Fractured Politics and Failing States.
Washington, DCJoined April 2010

Philip J. Crowley’s Tweets

However justified, this action is premature. How can #Kyiv, #Washington or #Brussels negotiate directly with someone wanted by the ? This would be better timed after the conflict, not in the middle of it. Ending this war was already difficult. It’s now even harder.
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#ICC President Judge Piotr Hofmański on recent arrest warrants against Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin and Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova in the context of the situation in #Ukraine More info: bit.ly/3lki7Ev
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Looking forward to a discussion of the restoration of diplomatic ties between #Iran and #SaudiArabia today on . This is an important development. The two rivals need to talk, but whether they can reduce the profound regional tensions that exist remains to be seen.
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Read a column suggesting #Putin is “doomed to failure.” This is premature. Yes, he totally miscalculated, but #Russian “success” can still take multiple forms, including continued occupation of #Ukrainian territory and obstruction of Kyiv’s aspirations for European integration.
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Strange to see a headline ask if #Putin has already lost the war in #Ukraine. Sure, Russian casualties are high, but he continues to hold territory and is undeterred by sanctions. That’s not winning, but it’s not losing either. The most likely outcome is a military stalemate.
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The biggest takeaway from #balloongate is how fragile the U.S-China relationship is. Beijing says it’s just a weather balloon. Washington says it’s more than that but not a threat. Yet it was enough to disrupt the prospect of constructive engagement that both sides say is needed.
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After the balloon shoot down, #China says it “reserves the right to make further responses.” Huh? I guess they could overreact to they termed our “overreaction.” They screwed up and are struggling to respond to their domestic public opinion. This is now a problem for both sides.
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If we want to one-up #China, take a page from the U-2 incident with #Russia during the Cold War. Rather than shoot it down, find a way to capture it. If it is indeed a spy balloon, reveal their lie, then have Blinken return it when he reschedules his trip to Beijing.
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It is unlikely this balloon has a nefarious purpose. Spy balloon? It’s the 21st Century. And when something unexpected in a critical relationship occurs, it makes face-to-face communications more important. On the surface, this decision is illogical. There has to be more to it.
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BREAKING: Secretary of State Antony Blinken will postpone his high-stakes weekend trip to China. This follows the discovery of a high-altitude Chinese balloon flying over sensitive sites in the western U.S. apnews.com/article/politi
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It’s a mystery why the White House has been so passive in response to the discovery of classified documents. The President’s lawyers should have checked all relevant areas faster, acknowledged it sooner and briefed the press and public about what they were doing. Unforced error.
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Can this possibly get more humiliating for Kevin McCarthy given how the Crazy Caucus just left him twisting in the wind. This is a preview of what governance in the House will look like for the next two years.
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North Korea is an economic and public health basket case. So, Kim Jong Un’s New Year’s Resolution? Grow more food? Buy a vaccine that works? Nah, let’s build more nuclear weapons! More flashy tests to show his daughter.
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Donald Trump says he refused to trade Viktor Bout for Paul Whelan, but insists he would have been able to work out a better deal with BFF Vladimir Putin. I guess that means he would have exchanged Whelan for…#Ukraine.
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Watching Mike Pence twist himself into a political pretzel on with , calling January 6 tragic yet equivocating about Trump’s efforts to undermine the legitimacy of the 2020 election. It just doesn’t get him to a place that can be considered presidential.
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Another setback for the Ayatollah! The Iranian people continue to demonstrate against his oppressive regime. And now his football team loses to the Great Satan in an incredibly tense game and is knocked out of the #WorldCup.
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This is political (and strategic) malpractice. Democratic House members, most of whom occupy safe seats, put out a letter a week before the election that is bound to complicate the campaigns of colleagues in conservative districts fighting for their political lives.
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The progressives' Ukraine letter seems self-undermining. It *agrees* that it's not the US's place to "pressure" Ukraine into accepting any particular settlement. If so, the US should take its cues from Ukraine w/r/t what would facilitate peace talks on acceptable terms.
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This is one area where a parliamentary system has an advantage. The Conservatives voted last month. They got it wrong. The winner imploded. So they get a mulligan. That’s the good news. The bad news is it is probably not going to save them from defeat in the general election.
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Breaking News: Rishi Sunak is set to become Britain’s prime minister, the first nonwhite person in the role. He’ll face urgent economic issues. Follow updates. nyti.ms/3FbIzI2
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We are losing all conception of common sense. A federal judge blocked a New York law that restricts guns in houses of worship. So we should be able to take communion in one hand while holding an AK-47 with the other? So much for the Bible passage about swords and ploughshares.
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Let’s review this. Putin provoked a foolish war in #Ukraine, yet is considered a bold leader. Zelensky has led a brilliant defense of his country, yet is considered foolish. Michael Flynn is a head case. He needs a better concussion protocol, perhaps one attached to reality.
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The former national security adviser twitter.com/RonFilipkowski…
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China responded to ’s pledge to support #Taiwan by saying is part of China, and the PRC is its only legitimate government. Political legitimacy is earned. It cannot be imposed. Any unification appeal in Taiwan took a nose dive given how it strangled Hong Kong.
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What is clear from #Iran President Raisi’s interview with is that there is little chance relations with the United States will stabilize without direct engagement. We simply don’t understand each other as well as necessary to manage an incredibly complex relationship.
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Problematically, the longstanding U.S. policy, applying sanctions while offering political normalization and economic investment in return for denuclearization, ignores the reality reflected in this new DPRK law, Kim will never give up his nukes. His survival depends on them. 2/2
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North Korea’s new law authorizing a nuclear strike should any state attempt to overthrow Kim Jong Un reflects two realities. The DPRK’s nuclear arsenal is the regime’s insurance policy, which it will never trade for promises of political normalization or economic investment. 1/2
After a jarring two day period, Great Britain has both a new Prime Minister and Monarch. Can’t help but compare the dignity and respect for rules and institutions that we see there with the conspiracy mongering and acrimony that lingers here two years after a valid election.
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The government should take the #maralagate case to Judge Judy. Garland explains a recent White House boarder took stuff that didn’t belong to him. Trump claims he was wrongfully evicted. Judge Judy doesn’t buy Trump’s cockamamie story and sides with the plaintiff. Case closed.
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Reading about Trump’s statement that, if elected in 2024, he would grant pardons and issue a government apology to those prosecuted for attacking the Capitol on January 6. If Pontius, er Donald, is so intent to appease the mob, maybe he’ll hand over Mike Pence to be hung as well.
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What a contrast between two leaders. #Gorbachev chose not to fight change and changed history as a result. He will be remembered as a legendary global figure. #Putin is trying to reverse that history. Hopefully he will fail and face a far more critical historical judgement.
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In 2016, Republicans said it was inappropriate to confirm a Supreme Court justice months before an election. In 2020, they did just that without blushing at the hypocrisy. Now they say DoJ should not do its job before an election. Next up, Biden should not breathe until November.
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There are three major power competitions today: the U.S. v Russia, U.S. v China, and U.S. v Itself. Criticism of ignores this vital third competition. Once Beijing made its opposition so public, domestic politics left her no alternative. She had to visit #Taiwan.
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What a difference a decade makes. Bin Laden is killed in a U.S. raid and it’s a big deal. His successor, Al Zawahiri, is killed in a drone strike and it’s an asterisk. That says a lot about the decline of global militant movements like Al Qaeda.
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