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We are pleased to announce our new Oil Forecast and Scenarios Service, offering a comprehensive approach to assessing
#oilprice risks. The service combines in-depth intelligence with state-of-the-art models of#crude markets. Find out more: http://bit.ly/2ScWXpn pic.twitter.com/L8dJRd9AMi
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Oxford Economics proslijedio/la je Tweet
US ISM
#manufacturing post first positive print in 6mo: 50.9 in Jan: - new orders 52 (+4.4) - production 54.3 (+9.5) ! - employment 46.6 (+1.4) - backlogs still weak 45.7 > purchasing manufacturers generally optimistic > Points to bottom rather than rebound > before#coronaviruspic.twitter.com/yFz6Ljuid2
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As the
#Wuhan#nCoV#coronavirus outbreak and responses intensify globally, we have further revised down our#China growth forecast and now project 5.4% growth for 2020, compared with 6% previously. We expect Q1 growth to be cut my more than 2ppts: http://bit.ly/2ueOMkq pic.twitter.com/GTw2fJxhMW
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The
@FT features our analysis of the changing 'Asia bid' for US#Treasuries and other overseas government bonds as#Japan overtakes#China as the largest holders of US#governmentdebt: https://on.ft.com/3b9MxPR pic.twitter.com/4non7qCtkF
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The
@nytimes and@petersgoodman highlight our analysis of the global economic impact of the Wuhan nCoV coronavirus outbreak:https://nyti.ms/2GNQE6fHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
With the rise in
#Wuhan#coronavirus cases it’s clear the disease is now economic threat. Near-term impact on growth in#China is likely to be large – we have cut our 2020 forecast by 0.4ppts to 5.6%. Worldwide global growth could take a 0.2ppts hit: http://bit.ly/36G2Mkk pic.twitter.com/7Vmp9h7YA3
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Oxford Economics is pleased to be contributing support to the
#ECB#EBA#ESRB EU-wide banking sector#stresstest via the use of our Global#EconomicModel for the calibration of the stress-testing scenario for non-EU economies: https://www.oxfordeconomics.com/global-economic-model …https://twitter.com/EBA_News/status/1223291170677235712 …
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In the
#UK the#BankofEngland gave conflicting messages as it held interest rates today, with optimism on a near-term growth pick-up in and diminished risks jarring with a weaker forecast. We retain our call that the#BoE will not cut rates in 2020: http://bit.ly/37EcogU pic.twitter.com/ZBJM5rwg0d
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On Bloomberg Markets, OE's Sian Fenner, discusses the spread of the
#Wuhan#coronavirus#nCoV and how it could impact China’s first-quarter GDP:https://bloom.bg/314XFcmHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Comments by the US
#FederalReserve chairman, Jay Powell, highlighting subdued inflation in the#USeconomy emphasise that the Fed is set to continue to lean towards looser policy with any future rate rise far off, OE's Kathy Bostjancic tells the@wsj ...https://on.wsj.com/2tRIlnjHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
In the
@WashingtonPost our modelling of US swing states in the 2020#presidentialelection is highlighted by@ToryNewmyer. We find that while economic conditions point to a razor-thin Trump win, a modest rise in Democrat turnout would swing the election:https://wapo.st/318JEKPHvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Oxford Economics proslijedio/la je Tweet
Macroeconomic models have predicted Trump should cruise to reelection. But a new study of swing states by
@OxfordEconomics finds even a modest uptick in Dem turnout would sink himhttps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2020/01/30/the-finance-202-big-democratic-turnout-would-sink-trump-in-2020-election-even-in-a-strong-economy-says-a-new-study/5e31fc7c602ff14e6605c234/?tid=ss_tw …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Oxford Economics proslijedio/la je Tweet
New
@OxfordEconomics study: Trump can’t rely on the relative strength of the economy to ensure his reelection. Via@ToryNewmyer w@BrentGriffithshttps://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-finance-202/2020/01/30/the-finance-202-big-democratic-turnout-would-sink-trump-in-2020-election-even-in-a-strong-economy-says-a-new-study/5e31fc7c602ff14e6605c234/ …Hvala. Twitter će to iskoristiti za poboljšanje vaše vremenske crte. PoništiPoništi -
Oxford Economics proslijedio/la je Tweet
Looking ahead, we see
#GDP momentum softening from 2.3% Q4/Q4 in 2019 to 1.6% Q4/Q4 in 2020 as global headwinds, lingering policy uncertainty and squeezed profits erode employment growth and confidence, and in turn, constrain consumers outlays growth.pic.twitter.com/7AxNcUinLQ
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Oxford Economics proslijedio/la je Tweet
Lower mortgage rates and reduced price inflation continued to support the residential sector, but the 5.8% advance in Q4 was barely enough to pull the annual pace above zero, to 1.5% y/y, and not sufficient to prevent back-to-back years of contracting investment.pic.twitter.com/l8IY5EBckU
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Oxford Economics proslijedio/la je Tweet
Consumer spending only +1.8% in Q4 as households exercised more caution in the face of elevated policy uncertainty and moderating income growth. In 2020, cooler employment trends and lower income growth prospects will lead consumers to gently rein in spendingpic.twitter.com/0B5Fdm1wOk
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Oxford Economics proslijedio/la je Tweet
Average 2.3% GDP advance in 2019 is marginally weaker than 2.4% print in 2017 but this is another optical illusion as most recent 3 Qs mark economy’s worst performance since the 2016 slump. Even momentum headed into 2020 is softer than the 2.3% y/y print would indicatepic.twitter.com/mSSADgVhHM
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Oxford Economics proslijedio/la je Tweet
Softening consumer spending momentum means the main pillar of US activity is eroding But even chart below is misleading given "optical illusion" from 1.5ppt contribution from 8.7% plunge in imports.pic.twitter.com/h6pK5BUjsC
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Oxford Economics proslijedio/la je Tweet
The 2.1%
#GDP print gives "optical illusion" of an economy chugging along at moderate 2% clip at end-2019, but composition of growth reveals softer picture. More than 70% of Q4 advance came from temporary collapse in imports, business investment subdued & consumers + cautiouspic.twitter.com/fhj8GVD1ij
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What’s new
adverse scenario follows a ‘lower for longer’ narrative = a recession coupled with low or negative interest rates for a prolonged period