Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

World leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis for business and government

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Vrijeme pridruživanja: kolovoz 2010.

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  1. We are pleased to announce our new Oil Forecast and Scenarios Service, offering a comprehensive approach to assessing risks. The service combines in-depth intelligence with state-of-the-art models of markets. Find out more:

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  2. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    prije 18 sati

    US ISM post first positive print in 6mo: 50.9 in Jan: - new orders 52 (+4.4) - production 54.3 (+9.5) ! - employment 46.6 (+1.4) - backlogs still weak 45.7 > purchasing manufacturers generally optimistic > Points to bottom rather than rebound > before

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  3. As the outbreak and responses intensify globally, we have further revised down our growth forecast and now project 5.4% growth for 2020, compared with 6% previously. We expect Q1 growth to be cut my more than 2ppts:

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  4. The features our analysis of the changing 'Asia bid' for US and other overseas government bonds as overtakes as the largest holders of US :

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  5. The and highlight our analysis of the global economic impact of the Wuhan nCoV coronavirus outbreak:

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  6. 31. sij

    With the rise in cases it’s clear the disease is now economic threat. Near-term impact on growth in is likely to be large – we have cut our 2020 forecast by 0.4ppts to 5.6%. Worldwide global growth could take a 0.2ppts hit:

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  7. 31. sij

    Oxford Economics is pleased to be contributing support to the EU-wide banking sector via the use of our Global for the calibration of the stress-testing scenario for non-EU economies:

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  8. 30. sij

    In the the gave conflicting messages as it held interest rates today, with optimism on a near-term growth pick-up in and diminished risks jarring with a weaker forecast. We retain our call that the will not cut rates in 2020:

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  9. 30. sij

    On Bloomberg Markets, OE's Sian Fenner, discusses the spread of the and how it could impact China’s first-quarter GDP:

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  10. 30. sij

    Comments by the US chairman, Jay Powell, highlighting subdued inflation in the emphasise that the Fed is set to continue to lean towards looser policy with any future rate rise far off, OE's Kathy Bostjancic tells the ...

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  11. 30. sij

    In the our modelling of US swing states in the 2020 is highlighted by . We find that while economic conditions point to a razor-thin Trump win, a modest rise in Democrat turnout would swing the election:

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  12. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij
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  14. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    Looking ahead, we see momentum softening from 2.3% Q4/Q4 in 2019 to 1.6% Q4/Q4 in 2020 as global headwinds, lingering policy uncertainty and squeezed profits erode employment growth and confidence, and in turn, constrain consumers outlays growth.

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  15. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    Optical illusion of US growth in Q4 2019

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  16. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    Lower mortgage rates and reduced price inflation continued to support the residential sector, but the 5.8% advance in Q4 was barely enough to pull the annual pace above zero, to 1.5% y/y, and not sufficient to prevent back-to-back years of contracting investment.

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  17. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    Consumer spending only +1.8% in Q4 as households exercised more caution in the face of elevated policy uncertainty and moderating income growth. In 2020, cooler employment trends and lower income growth prospects will lead consumers to gently rein in spending

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  18. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    Average 2.3% GDP advance in 2019 is marginally weaker than 2.4% print in 2017 but this is another optical illusion as most recent 3 Qs mark economy’s worst performance since the 2016 slump. Even momentum headed into 2020 is softer than the 2.3% y/y print would indicate

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  19. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    Softening consumer spending momentum means the main pillar of US activity is eroding But even chart below is misleading given "optical illusion" from 1.5ppt contribution from 8.7% plunge in imports.

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  20. proslijedio/la je Tweet
    30. sij

    The 2.1% print gives "optical illusion" of an economy chugging along at moderate 2% clip at end-2019, but composition of growth reveals softer picture. More than 70% of Q4 advance came from temporary collapse in imports, business investment subdued & consumers + cautious

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