Oxford Economics

@OxfordEconomics

World leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis for business and government

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Geregistreerd in augustus 2010
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  1. heeft geretweet
    14 uur geleden

    Solid US personal income +0.4% in May. Real disposable income +0.2% & real consumer spend flat. Solid but slowing momentum for consumer spending +2.3% y/y -- slowest since Mar 2016. Growth in Q2 ~2.8% (saar) much better than +0.9% Q1. Our Q2 tracker down to +4.3% from +5%.

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  2. heeft geretweet
    13 uur geleden

    Headline PCE reached 2.3% in May -- highest since Mar 2012 -- while core inflation +2.0% -- highest since April 2012. With inflation at the 's 2% target and likely to push higher this summer we continue to see 4 rate hikes in 2018. Big unknown is policy...

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  3. heeft geretweet
    14 uur geleden

    These data confirm take on the US econ. Q2 will represent a peak with GDP growth around 3% y/y for the first time in four years. With tax stimulus dissipating and rising, consumer spending growth will converge with real disposable income growth

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  4. 13 uur geleden

    In , the sharp fall in in recent weeks unnerved markets. We think it reflects market pressures amid gloomier sentiment on China’s growth and . But Beijing won't want this to go too far. If the trend persists, we expect action:

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  5. 13 uur geleden

    In , Sunday's election may be one of the most pivotal in its history. Leftist Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is set to win. All 3 candidates hv pledged to raise growth above 3% over the next 6 yrs. We think none of them will be able to do so:

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  6. heeft geretweet
    28 jun.

    US final Q1 +2.0%: - slow consumer spending in Q1 - 0.9% is lowest since 2013; but much stronger pace in Q2 - strong business investment +10.4% - strongest since 2014; & continued momentum in Q2 - net trade & inventories contributions neutral; expected to turn positive in Q2

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  7. heeft geretweet
    28 jun.

    US +2.0% in Q1 & 2.8% y/y. Final estimate showed -0.2ppt revision stemming from less spending on healthcare & reduced retail inventories accumulation & offset by stronger intellectual property investment. Gross Domestic Income revised up to 3.6% (saar) on stronger profits

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  8. 28 jun.

    is a growing threat worldwide as e-commerce fuels new opportunities for to infiltrate legitimate supply chains, creating serious issues of public health and consumer safety. We examine the issues in a major new report:

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  9. 28 jun.

    If US administration imposes 20% on imports from EU: direct impact -0.1% GDP & 100,000 job loss in 2019. Large supply chain multipliers in auto sector + business uncertainty = total shock could be twice as large:

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  10. 28 jun.

    In , the share of women who work shd gradually rise now they are allowed to drive. At only 22%, the Saudi female workforce participation rate is the world's lowest. But ending the driving ban will likely have only a modest growth impact:

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  11. 28 jun.

    A wave of change swept in the second half of 2017 and early 2018. In the 2nd edition of our Africa Risk-Reward Index we examine the changing impact of political developments on economic performance and business potential:

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  12. 28 jun.

    Escalation of EU-US looks certain - likeliest. €46bn of EU exports wld be 7x the trade hit by metals tariffs. Impact manageable at 0.1% of GDP. But Gemany, CEE hit disproportionately and confidence shock would add to toll:

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  13. heeft geretweet
    27 jun.

    If US admin imposes 20% on imports from EU: Direct impact -0.1% GDP & job loss 100,000 in 2019. Large supply chain multipliers in auto sector + business uncertainty = total shock could be twice as large

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  14. heeft geretweet
    27 jun.

    US real growth tracker at 5% (annualized) in Q2: strongest in 4yrs. Consumer spending, business investment, trade & inventories all contributing to growth. Importantly, growth expected to fall back to 2-2.5% range in H2. Momentum to peak at 3.3% y/y in Q2

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  15. heeft geretweet
    27 jun.

    Global automakers warn could lift car prices by thousands of dollars. estimates the direct impact could be -0.1% GDP in 2019 & 0.2% in 2020. Indirect shock could be double that. via

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  16. 27 jun.

    US Executive : , Chief US Economist, & , Chief US Financial Economist, discuss US economic outlook w/ focus on recent market turbulence, rising trade protectionism, burgeoning inflationary pressures & .

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  17. 27 jun.

    A wave of change swept in the second half of 2017 and early 2018. In the 2nd edition of our Africa Risk-Reward Index we examine the changing impact of political developments on economic performance and business potential:

    1 retweet 1 vind-ik-leuk
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  18. heeft geretweet
    27 jun.

    “Fake goods cannot be fought with fake political will,” says Nikos Passas of Northeastern University at OE’s meeting today on illicit trade.

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  19. heeft geretweet
    27 jun.

    Allen Bruford, former chair of WEF’s Global Agenda Council on illicit trade: “Consumers assume companies know more about their supply chains than they actually do.”

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  20. heeft geretweet
    27 jun.

    Today in London: OE’s John Reiners discusses the key findings from our latest study on illicit trade, encompassing 37 European countries and over 45k survey respondents.

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