The low dysgenic fertility problem is much harder to crack, and is the one that will probably do us in. How do you persuade smart young girls that they'd rather start a smart young family than have a high-flying career? How do you persuade smart young boys to take the condom off?
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Increasing fertility is inherently authoritarian, so let's look at authoritarian states that have tried in the past and see how they did. Starting with the Soviet Union, the authoritarian state par excellence. Quotes from "What to expect…" by Jonathan last:pic.twitter.com/B9mhl8G18T
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Oh dear. To be fair though, I wouldn't want to have children in Russia either. So we turn to Singapore, in many ways the prototypical Alt Right state. For decades, they've been doing everything they can think of to increase eugenic fertility. Result?pic.twitter.com/dNCEtjJD0v
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Really? 1.11? Fuck. There are many other examples, but the bottom line is that you can't bribe or tax people into having children. It doesn't work. It's never worked. These kinds of policies are about a 2/10 on my authoritarian-o-meter though, so let's get serious. Two ideas.
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The first successful IVF baby was born in 1978. I myself am one. It would be a pretty trivial matter to harvest eggs and sperm from a load of smart people, then all we need is a supply of willing wombs to carry them.
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That could be done by literally anyone, and it would be worth our while to pay well for the service. Even if you don't fancy outsourcing, we've got plenty of single mothers who could probably take care of a few more. We're saving civilisation, after all.https://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-women-surrogacy/indian-surrogate-mothers-grab-last-chance-to-make-babies-ahead-of-impending-ban-idUSKBN1530FL …
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If that's the 21st-century solution, then the second idea is the 19th-century solution: Ban abortion, ban birth control. Condoms, the pill, femidoms, the lot. Would this inevitably lead to a revolution? I don't know, maybe, but it would probably fix the problem.
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Thoughts? cc. @AudaciousEpigon @tcjfs
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Only real option is to go meta, so a whole bunch of things get tried (and the deep failure modes can be quarantined).
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Civilisational pessimist Retweeted Wrath Of Gnon
You're right, but we should also be prepared for the fact that whatever we try may not work, and aware of the fact that many serious attempts have failed miserably. Some seem to think this will be an easy problem to solve, I'm not so hopeful.https://twitter.com/wrathofgnon/status/950955699592286209 …
Civilisational pessimist added,
Wrath Of Gnon @wrathofgnonJapanese town doubles its total fertility rate with directed incentives to make parenthood in slower paced actual communities possible. This ought to be replicable anywhere in the west. https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21734319-subsidising-parenthood-appears-work-wonders-small-town-japan-doubles-its-fertility-rate?cid1=cust/ddnew/email/n/n/2018019n/owned/n/n/ddnew/n/n/n/nap/Daily_Dispatch/email&etear=dailydispatch …Show this thread2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
Rigorous experimentation is necessary precisely because it's not an easy problem to solve.
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