I think in 1942 a "Hitler will control less territory in 10 years than now" prediction would've been safe. You up for something that level?
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Replying to @Outsideness @slatestarcodex
... Units of geopolitical fragmentation, censorship-proof cyberspace escalation, MAI deterrence, and eugenic realism / speciation are basic.
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Replying to @Outsideness @slatestarcodex
... Some of that stuff is inherently cryptic. The Bitcoin price might be the best proxy for the recession of the Left. ...
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Replying to @Outsideness @slatestarcodex
... How about: Within five years, the total crypto-currency capital stock will have increased by an order of decimal magnitude? ...
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Replying to @Outsideness @slatestarcodex
... If not that, then I'm not sure what to count. Not politicians, certainly. The whole point is to marginalize (not accumulate) them.
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Replying to @Outsideness
What about whether countries institute stricter immigration policies? Or if more whites support high immigration in 2030 than now?
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Replying to @slatestarcodex @Outsideness
could be a lagging indicator but what about deflation of university system or size of "social admin" in unis?
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Replying to @michaelbd @slatestarcodex
I'd expect route-arounds, bypassing the rotting academic system through cyberspace, before substantial reforms of universities.
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Replying to @Outsideness @slatestarcodex
I come from dif angle. But my metric is simple. When fertility rates go to 2.7 and rising in our countries
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Scott wants a prediction, though, not an objective.
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