It's a war. Perhaps, in 1942, someone could have predicted the approximate date when Hitler would eat a bullet, but it seems unlikely. ...
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Replying to @Outsideness
I think in 1942 a "Hitler will control less territory in 10 years than now" prediction would've been safe. You up for something that level?
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Replying to @Outsideness @slatestarcodex
... Units of geopolitical fragmentation, censorship-proof cyberspace escalation, MAI deterrence, and eugenic realism / speciation are basic.
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Replying to @Outsideness @slatestarcodex
... Some of that stuff is inherently cryptic. The Bitcoin price might be the best proxy for the recession of the Left. ...
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Replying to @Outsideness @slatestarcodex
... How about: Within five years, the total crypto-currency capital stock will have increased by an order of decimal magnitude? ...
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Replying to @Outsideness @slatestarcodex
... If not that, then I'm not sure what to count. Not politicians, certainly. The whole point is to marginalize (not accumulate) them.
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Replying to @Outsideness
What about whether countries institute stricter immigration policies? Or if more whites support high immigration in 2030 than now?
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Replying to @slatestarcodex
Immigration selectivity is far more important than immigrant numbers. A triumphant Alt-Right would be extremely sub-optimal. ...
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Replying to @Outsideness @slatestarcodex
What about a NYT editorial acknowledging IQ is heritable, after Chinese CRISPR researchers find a few dozen, highly important genes?
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Formal initiation of a genomics-based, private eugenics industry somewhere in the Far East within a decade seems like a strong possibility.
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