@asilentsky @Outsideness A man living on Sentinel Island in 1650 would not be faulted for thinking there were no men anywhere across the sea
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Replying to @drethelin
@asilentsky
@Outsideness But he simply doesn't have good enough technology to know, despite being flagrantly wrong. Same applies here.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @drethelin
@asilentsky
@Outsideness We can rule out vast civilizations of star movers and dyson builders but anything else might be invisible.1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @drethelin
@asilentsky
@Outsideness to put it another way, there could be 10 stars with human-level civ within 50 light years and we would have no idea1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @drethelin
@drethelin @asilentsky The time-coincidence viz developmental synchronization suggested by that is surely utterly absurd?1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @Outsideness
@Outsideness @asilentsky what do you mean? My point is that we wouldn't know whether or not the coincidence happened.1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @drethelin
@drethelin @asilentsky Assume c.5 billion years of intelligence-development time (fairly conservative). 0.1% of that is then 5 million years1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @Outsideness
@drethelin @asilentsky The chance of any two neighboring civs being even remotely within same development-phase window is effectively zero.1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @Outsideness
@Outsideness @asilentsky sure but that's not really relevant to my point re: our poor abilities to detect shit1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @drethelin
@drethelin @asilentsky Surely it is. There's either primitive squalor (hard to detect) or stellar-tectonic awesomeness (hard to miss).2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
@drethelin @asilentsky ... What is effectively impossible (statistically) is human-level goldilocks-time rudimentary super-planetary civs.
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