Let's try to specify this. If the West remains on its present course it will be economically outperformed by China to an embarrassing extent. What are our metrics? Totally in for $100,000 if we can sort this out. Hey, why not $1,000,0000 if you're good for it?
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Replying to @JohnWolpersCFP @SelimSeesYou
But if China NGDP is 95% of US NGDP in 2038, it will have massively outperformed America for another two decades. ...
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Replying to @Outsideness @SelimSeesYou
... Counter-offer: If Chinese NGDP is larger relative to US NGDP in 2018 than it is today, you pay me RMB 500,000. Otherwise I pay you RMB 500,000.
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Replying to @djinnius @SelimSeesYou
That's 2038. If the trend lines continue "the future" will be increasingly Chinese. ...
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... But I backed down a bit, because a bet seems like a lose-lose proposition. I have no confidence in my chances of collecting if I win, while still feeling under obligation to deliver if I lose.
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... And the forecast is far too narrowly focused. I'd be surprised if the USA still existed as an integrated polity by the time it's overtaken in absolute terms by the Chinese economy.
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Lets have a purely reputational bet on that, then. I'm happy to take the counter-party forecast.
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